November 2016 will most certainly go down in the books as one of the most memorable months in recent decades. If the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series in dramatic Game 7 fashion wasn’t enough to shock you, then the events that unfolded during the late evening on Nov. 8 likely were.
Regardless of which side of the aisle you stand on, election night was a jaw-dropping moment. Donald Trump’s own campaign advisors, along with some of his supporters and pundits, admitted to being astonished as the story unfolded on election night.
On the morning of Election Day, the New York Times set the odds of Trump winning at a scant 15%. “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 37-yard field goal,” they wrote. Well, Hillary missed a chip shot, and the NYT editors—like many in the media—were left with egg on their face for grossly underestimating Trump’s chances. It was a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.
What does a Trump-led America (coupled with a GOP-controlled Congress) mean for the AEC industry? As with any election, it’s a mixed bag of the good, the bad, and the unknown.
The good: Trump proposes spending up- wards of $1 trillion to rebuild the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels, water systems, and airports as part of a massive infrastructure bill. While not primarily buildings work, this level of investment would most certainly create real estate development opportunities and needs—whether directly or indirectly—for the AEC community. Infrastructure investment is one of the few pressing issues that garners almost universal support among political leaders in Washington. The trillion-dollar question is, How do we pay for it? Trump’s answer: public-private partnerships and other creative financing methods.
The bad: In his 100-day action plan, Trump outlines several measures that could hit AEC firms in the pocketbook in the near term. On the list is Obamacare, which Trump hopes to repeal and replace with traditional HSA and health insurance initiatives. This move could cause healthcare operators to take a “let’s wait and see” approach to real estate investments, much like they did during the implementation of Obamacare. Having healthcare owners hit the pause button for the second time in six years could severely impact AEC rms. At $87 billion in annual construction spending, healthcare is the largest sector in the nonresidential market.
The unknown: Given the GOP’s contentious relationship with Trump during the election cycle, we could be in for four more years of gridlock in Washington. It’s too early to predict how his ideas will be received by the house and senate.
A recent survey of 306 BD+C readers paints a picture of cautious optimism for AEC firms. Half of the respondents (50.3%) predict that 2017 will be an “excellent” or “very good” business year for their firm. More than half (55.3%) expect their firm’s revenue to increase next year; just 11.5% are forecasting a drop.
On the flip side, when asked to identify their biggest concerns heading into 2017, nearly a third (31.7%) cited “business impacts from the Presidential election” as a top-three burden— only behind “general economic conditions” and “competition from other firms.”
As we head toward Inauguration Day, all we can do is hope the President-elect delivers on much more good than bad.
Related Stories
K-12 Schools | May 16, 2022
Private faculty offices are becoming a thing of the past at all levels of education
Perkins & Will’s recent design projects are using the area to encourage collaboration.
Codes and Standards | May 16, 2022
AIA releases Justice in the Built Environment guide
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) recently published a new supplementary edition of the Guides for Equitable Practice, titled “Justice in the Built Environment.”
K-12 Schools | May 16, 2022
A Quaker high school in Maryland is the first in the U.S. to get WELL Gold certification
Designed by Stantec, a Quaker high school is the first in the US to receive WELL Gold certification, which recognizes a commitment to occupants’ health and well-being.
Building Team | May 13, 2022
Glass penthouses rise above Toronto’s tree line
In midtown Toronto, the nine-story midrise building Leaside Common has released its Penthouse Collection: two-floor penthouses that take inspiration from Philip Johnson’s Glass House in Connecticut.
Market Data | May 12, 2022
Monthly construction input prices increase in April
Construction input prices increased 0.8% in April compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index data released today.
Codes and Standards | May 12, 2022
Solar industry creates non-profit to remove barriers to clean energy deployment
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) is launching a 501(c)3 non-profit organization to accelerate the transition to carbon-free electricity.
School Construction | May 11, 2022
New Digital Learning Commons at Rutgers supports doctoral programs in over 16 disciplines
The new Digital Learning Commons at the Rutgers University Archibald S. Alexander Library provides students in over 16 courses of study and four professional schools with spacious collaborative and study space.
Building Team | May 11, 2022
Miami to get its first supertall building
After completing its first supertall building, 111 W 57th Street in New York, developer PMG is now preparing for the groundbreaking of the first supertall in Miami: Waldorf Astoria Miami.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | May 10, 2022
Designing smarter places of learning
This course explains the how structural steel building systems are suited to construction of education facilities.
Market Data | May 10, 2022
Hybrid work could result in 20% less demand for office space
Global office demand could drop by between 10% and 20% as companies continue to develop policies around hybrid work arrangements, a Barclays analyst recently stated on CNBC.
