November 2016 will most certainly go down in the books as one of the most memorable months in recent decades. If the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series in dramatic Game 7 fashion wasn’t enough to shock you, then the events that unfolded during the late evening on Nov. 8 likely were.
Regardless of which side of the aisle you stand on, election night was a jaw-dropping moment. Donald Trump’s own campaign advisors, along with some of his supporters and pundits, admitted to being astonished as the story unfolded on election night.
On the morning of Election Day, the New York Times set the odds of Trump winning at a scant 15%. “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 37-yard field goal,” they wrote. Well, Hillary missed a chip shot, and the NYT editors—like many in the media—were left with egg on their face for grossly underestimating Trump’s chances. It was a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.
What does a Trump-led America (coupled with a GOP-controlled Congress) mean for the AEC industry? As with any election, it’s a mixed bag of the good, the bad, and the unknown.
The good: Trump proposes spending up- wards of $1 trillion to rebuild the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels, water systems, and airports as part of a massive infrastructure bill. While not primarily buildings work, this level of investment would most certainly create real estate development opportunities and needs—whether directly or indirectly—for the AEC community. Infrastructure investment is one of the few pressing issues that garners almost universal support among political leaders in Washington. The trillion-dollar question is, How do we pay for it? Trump’s answer: public-private partnerships and other creative financing methods.
The bad: In his 100-day action plan, Trump outlines several measures that could hit AEC firms in the pocketbook in the near term. On the list is Obamacare, which Trump hopes to repeal and replace with traditional HSA and health insurance initiatives. This move could cause healthcare operators to take a “let’s wait and see” approach to real estate investments, much like they did during the implementation of Obamacare. Having healthcare owners hit the pause button for the second time in six years could severely impact AEC rms. At $87 billion in annual construction spending, healthcare is the largest sector in the nonresidential market.
The unknown: Given the GOP’s contentious relationship with Trump during the election cycle, we could be in for four more years of gridlock in Washington. It’s too early to predict how his ideas will be received by the house and senate.
A recent survey of 306 BD+C readers paints a picture of cautious optimism for AEC firms. Half of the respondents (50.3%) predict that 2017 will be an “excellent” or “very good” business year for their firm. More than half (55.3%) expect their firm’s revenue to increase next year; just 11.5% are forecasting a drop.
On the flip side, when asked to identify their biggest concerns heading into 2017, nearly a third (31.7%) cited “business impacts from the Presidential election” as a top-three burden— only behind “general economic conditions” and “competition from other firms.”
As we head toward Inauguration Day, all we can do is hope the President-elect delivers on much more good than bad.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
Proposed EPA regulations threaten thousands of jobs, says Portland Cement Association
A proposed hazardous air pollutant regulation for the cement industry undermines the balance between environmental protection and economic viability, according to statements the Portland Cement Association (PCA) is issuing this week at a series of public hearings.
| Aug 11, 2010
GBCI launches credentialing maintenance program for current LEED APs
The Green Building Certification Institute (GBCI) launched a credentialing maintenance program (CMP) for LEED APs and Green Associates, ensuring that LEED professional credentials will remain relevant and meaningful in a rapidly evolving marketplace.
| Aug 11, 2010
Construction employment shrinks in 319 of the nation's 336 largest metro areas in July, continuing months-long slide
Construction workers in communities across the country continued to suffer extreme job losses this July according to a new analysis of metropolitan area employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released today by the Associated General Contractors of America. That analysis found construction employment declined in 319 of the nation’s largest communities while only 11 areas saw increases and six saw no change in construction employment between July 2008 and July 2009.
| Aug 11, 2010
Leggat McCall/Commodore Builders/O’Hagan “15 Days” earns LEED Platinum
The ambitious “15 Days” project that teamed up Leggat McCall Properties, Commodore Builders and Audrey O’Hagan Architects, LLC last September has just been certified LEED-platinum by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) – the first and only commercial interior work in Boston to earn that distinction.
| Aug 11, 2010
Harvard Public Library
Harvard, Mass.
Five years ago, the town of Harvard, Mass., which lies about 30 miles west of Boston, faced two problems. First, its iconic public schoolhouse, known as Old Bromfield, which was built in 1877, had become outdated. So, too, had its public library, which had no room to grow on its site.
