Following modest increases in construction spending for nonresidential buildings in 2019, economists from eight leading industry organizations forecast slight growth in 2020 and 2021—1.5% and 0.9%, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast panel.
Public safety, education, healthcare, and office are the bright spots in a market that is entering growth-slowdown mode. However, no downturn is projected by the economists.
The public safety sector is expected to grow 7.2% in 2020, followed by education (3.9%), healthcare (3.4%), and office (3.0%). Four sectors—hotels, religious facilities, amusement/recreation, and retail—will take a step back in construction spending in 2020, according to the report.
More from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast:
Construction spending last year was surprisingly weak, but current estimates suggest the industry had a modest increase in 2019. Retail construction activity was expected to underperform in 2019 but did not see the double-digit percentage declines that were expected. The AIA’s Consensus Construction forecast panel expects similar conditions this year and next.
“The broader economy is expected to continue to see slower growth this year, but the number of potential trouble spots seems to be diminishing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Revenue trends at architecture firms saw an uptick in the fourth quarter last year, which suggests construction spending will continue to see growth in the coming quarters.”
Related Stories
Contractors | Apr 19, 2023
Rising labor, material prices cost subcontractors $97 billion in unplanned expenses
Subcontractors continue to bear the brunt of rising input costs for materials and labor, according to a survey of nearly 900 commercial construction professionals.
Data Centers | Apr 14, 2023
JLL's data center outlook: Cloud computing, AI driving exponential growth for data center industry
According to JLL’s new Global Data Center Outlook, the mass adoption of cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) is driving exponential growth for the data center industry, with hyperscale and edge computing leading investor demand.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 13, 2023
Healthcare construction costs for 2023
Data from Gordian breaks down the average cost per square foot for a three-story hospital across 10 U.S. cities.
Higher Education | Apr 13, 2023
Higher education construction costs for 2023
Fresh data from Gordian breaks down the average cost per square foot for a two-story college classroom building across 10 U.S. cities.
Market Data | Apr 13, 2023
Construction input prices down year-over-year for first time since August 2020
Construction input prices increased 0.2% in March, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data released today. Nonresidential construction input prices rose 0.4% for the month.
Market Data | Apr 11, 2023
Construction crane count reaches all-time high in Q1 2023
Toronto, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Denver top the list of U.S/Canadian cities with the greatest number of fixed cranes on construction sites, according to Rider Levett Bucknall's RLB Crane Index for North America for Q1 2023.
Contractors | Apr 11, 2023
The average U.S. contractor has 8.7 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of March 2023
Associated Builders and Contractors reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator declined to 8.7 months in March, according to an ABC member survey conducted March 20 to April 3. The reading is 0.4 months higher than in March 2022.
Market Data | Apr 6, 2023
JLL’s 2023 Construction Outlook foresees growth tempered by cost increases
The easing of supply chain snags for some product categories, and the dispensing with global COVID measures, have returned the North American construction sector to a sense of normal. However, that return is proving to be complicated, with the construction industry remaining exceptionally busy at a time when labor and materials cost inflation continues to put pricing pressure on projects, leading to caution in anticipation of a possible downturn. That’s the prognosis of JLL’s just-released 2023 U.S. and Canada Construction Outlook.
Market Data | Apr 4, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending up 0.4% in February 2023
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.4% in February, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $982.2 billion for the month, up 16.8% from the previous year.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023
Average size of new apartments dropped sharply in 2022
The average size of new apartments in 2022 dropped sharply in 2022, as tracked by RentCafe. Across the U.S., the average new apartment size was 887 sf, down 30 sf from 2021, which was the largest year-over-year decrease.
