Following modest increases in construction spending for nonresidential buildings in 2019, economists from eight leading industry organizations forecast slight growth in 2020 and 2021—1.5% and 0.9%, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast panel.
Public safety, education, healthcare, and office are the bright spots in a market that is entering growth-slowdown mode. However, no downturn is projected by the economists.
The public safety sector is expected to grow 7.2% in 2020, followed by education (3.9%), healthcare (3.4%), and office (3.0%). Four sectors—hotels, religious facilities, amusement/recreation, and retail—will take a step back in construction spending in 2020, according to the report.
More from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast:
Construction spending last year was surprisingly weak, but current estimates suggest the industry had a modest increase in 2019. Retail construction activity was expected to underperform in 2019 but did not see the double-digit percentage declines that were expected. The AIA’s Consensus Construction forecast panel expects similar conditions this year and next.
“The broader economy is expected to continue to see slower growth this year, but the number of potential trouble spots seems to be diminishing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Revenue trends at architecture firms saw an uptick in the fourth quarter last year, which suggests construction spending will continue to see growth in the coming quarters.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Jan 12, 2017
73% of construction firms plan to expand their payrolls in 2017
However, many firms remain worried about the availability of qualified workers.
Market Data | Jan 9, 2017
Trump market impact prompts surge in optimism for U.S. engineering firm leaders
The boost in firm leader optimism extends across almost the entire engineering marketplace.
Market Data | Jan 5, 2017
Nonresidential spending thrives in strong November spending report
Many construction firms have reported that they remain busy but have become concerned that work could dry up in certain markets in 2017 or 2018, says Anirban Basu, ABC Chief Economist.
Market Data | Dec 21, 2016
Architecture Billings Index up slightly in November
New design contracts also return to positive levels, signifying future growth in construction activity.
Market Data | Dec 21, 2016
Will housing adjust to an aging population?
New Joint Center report projects 66% increase in senior heads of households by 2035.
Market Data | Dec 13, 2016
ABC predicts modest growth for 2017 nonresidential construction sector; warns of vulnerability for contractor
“The U.S. economy continues to expand amid a weak global economy and, despite risks to the construction industry, nonresidential spending should expand 3.5 percent in 2017,” says ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
Market Data | Dec 2, 2016
Nonresidential construction spending gains momentum
Nonresidential spending is now 2.6 percent higher than at the same time one year ago.
Market Data | Nov 30, 2016
Marcum Commercial Construction Index reports industry outlook has shifted; more change expected
Overall nonresidential construction spending in September totaled $690.5 billion, down a slight 0.7 percent from a year earlier.
Industry Research | Nov 30, 2016
Multifamily millennials: Here is what millennial renters want in 2017
It’s all about technology and convenience when it comes to the things millennial renters value most in a multifamily facility.
Market Data | Nov 29, 2016
It’s not just traditional infrastructure that requires investment
A national survey finds strong support for essential community buildings.
