Following modest increases in construction spending for nonresidential buildings in 2019, economists from eight leading industry organizations forecast slight growth in 2020 and 2021—1.5% and 0.9%, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast panel.
Public safety, education, healthcare, and office are the bright spots in a market that is entering growth-slowdown mode. However, no downturn is projected by the economists.
The public safety sector is expected to grow 7.2% in 2020, followed by education (3.9%), healthcare (3.4%), and office (3.0%). Four sectors—hotels, religious facilities, amusement/recreation, and retail—will take a step back in construction spending in 2020, according to the report.
More from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast:
Construction spending last year was surprisingly weak, but current estimates suggest the industry had a modest increase in 2019. Retail construction activity was expected to underperform in 2019 but did not see the double-digit percentage declines that were expected. The AIA’s Consensus Construction forecast panel expects similar conditions this year and next.
“The broader economy is expected to continue to see slower growth this year, but the number of potential trouble spots seems to be diminishing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Revenue trends at architecture firms saw an uptick in the fourth quarter last year, which suggests construction spending will continue to see growth in the coming quarters.”
Related Stories
Market Data | May 24, 2017
Design billings increasing entering height of construction season
All regions report positive business conditions.
Market Data | May 24, 2017
The top franchise companies in the construction pipeline
3 franchise companies comprise 65% of all rooms in the Total Pipeline.
Industry Research | May 24, 2017
These buildings paid the highest property taxes in 2016
Office buildings dominate the list, but a residential community climbed as high as number two on the list.
Market Data | May 16, 2017
Construction firms add 5,000 jobs in April
Unemployment down to 4.4%; Specialty trade jobs dip slightly.
Multifamily Housing | May 10, 2017
May 2017 National Apartment Report
Median one-bedroom rent rose to $1,012 in April, the highest it has been since January.
Senior Living Design | May 9, 2017
Designing for a future of limited mobility
There is an accessibility challenge facing the U.S. An estimated 1 in 5 people will be aged 65 or older by 2040.
Industry Research | May 4, 2017
How your AEC firm can go from the shortlist to winning new business
Here are four key lessons to help you close more business.
Engineers | May 3, 2017
At first buoyed by Trump election, U.S. engineers now less optimistic about markets, new survey shows
The first quarter 2017 (Q1/17) of ACEC’s Engineering Business Index (EBI) dipped slightly (0.5 points) to 66.0.
Market Data | May 2, 2017
Nonresidential Spending loses steam after strong start to year
Spending in the segment totaled $708.6 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis.
Market Data | May 1, 2017
Nonresidential Fixed Investment surges despite sluggish economic in first quarter
Real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate during the first three months of the year.
