ConstructConnect, a provider of construction information and technology solutions in North America, recently announced the release of its Q4 2017 Forecast Quarterly Report. The Winter 2017-18 starts forecast includes year-over-year estimates for 2017 that have become more upbeat than a quarter ago. Groundbreakings on several mega projects late this year have provided exceptional lift to the industrial and engineering type-of-structure categories.
“Out to 2021, residential will be the main driver of total construction starts, recording year-over-year increases of nearly +6.0% or more,” explained Chief Economist Alex Carrick. “Non-residential building will disappoint, with gains of only about +2.0% each year. Engineering will be strong in 2018 and 2019, as energy initiatives and infrastructure work are promoted by Washington, but will then moderate in 2020-21.”
The forecast which combines ConstructConnect's proprietary data with macroeconomic factors and Oxford Economics econometric expertise, shows some of the more robust 2018 starts forecasts:
- Single-family residential, +8.8%
- Warehouses, +4.7%
- Nursing homes, +5.9%
- Educational facilities, +4.2%
- Roads, +5.9%
- Bridges, +10.2%
- Miscellaneous civil (power, oil and gas), +13.8%
2017 total starts are now expected to be +7.9% (versus an earlier calculated +4.5%). Residential has been upgraded to +10.1% and engineering/civil to +23.1%. Non-residential building has been left essentially flat at -0.5%.
For 2018, the new forecasts shave a bit off what was previously expected. Total starts are now projected to be +4.8%, a little slower than the +5.9% of a quarter ago. Residential will be +6.7% in 2018; non-res building, +1.9%; and heavy engineering/civil, +6.6%.
In residential construction, the multi-family market has had its turn and it will be the single-family market that will expand more rapidly moving forward, aided by family-formations among the millennial generation.
The forecast reports that educational facilities will grow faster than hospitals in 2018, but beginning in 2019 their positions will reverse. Some other non-residential building type-of-structure categories with bullish outlooks include: courthouses and prisons; warehouses; and nursing homes. Airports and sports stadiums will also be stepping into the construction spotlight.
The report noted a few ongoing economic trends:
- A synchronous world expansion is underway, with North America, Japan, China and Europe all experiencing GDP growth
- Based on demographics, housing starts have fallen short of potential for almost a decade
- Office space demand will increasingly come from firms engaged in high-tech
- Prices for many internationally traded commodities are on the mend
To learn more about ConstructConnect or get a free copy of the Forecast Quarterly Report, visit constructconnect.com.
Related Stories
Market Data | Dec 11, 2017
Global hotel construction pipeline is growing
The Total Pipeline stands at 12,427 Projects/2,084,940 Rooms.
Market Data | Dec 11, 2017
Construction backlog surges, sets record in third quarter
CBI is a leading economic indicator that reflects the amount of construction work under contract, but not yet completed.
Market Data | Dec 7, 2017
Buoyed by healthy economy, ABC Index finds contractors upbeat
Despite rising construction labor and materials costs, 55% of contractors expect their profit margins to expand in the first half of 2018.
Market Data | Dec 5, 2017
Top health systems engaged in $21 billion of U.S. construction projects
Largest active projects are by Sutter Health, New York Presbyterian, and Scripps Health.
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2017
2018 outlook: Economists point to slowdown, AEC professionals say ‘no way’
Multifamily housing and senior living developments head the list of the hottest sectors heading into 2018, according a survey of 356 AEC professionals.
Market Data | Nov 27, 2017
Construction's contribution to U.S. economy highest in seven years
Thirty-seven states benefited from the rise in construction activity in their state, while 13 states experienced a reduction in activity.
Market Data | Nov 15, 2017
Architecture Billings bounce back
Business conditions remain uneven across regions.
Market Data | Nov 3, 2017
New construction starts in 2018 to increase 3% to $765 billion: Dodge report
Dodge Outlook Report predicts deceleration but still growth, reflecting a mixed pattern by project type.
Market Data | Nov 2, 2017
Construction spending up in September; Down on a YOY basis
Nonresidential construction spending is down 2.9% on a year-over-year basis.
Market Data | Oct 19, 2017
Architecture Billings Index backslides slightly
Business conditions easing in the West.
