Multifamily housing will remain a robust market for A/E/C companies heading into 2020, according to the most recent results of PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. For the third quarter of 2019, the survey found that less than 9% of the nearly 100 respondents doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity compared with the prior quarter, while more than 54% saw an increase.
The Multifamily market’s third quarter Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 46% marked the 31st consecutive quarter that the submarket exceeded an NPMI of 40%. The last time it was below that level was the third quarter of 2011.
PSMJ’s NPMI measures the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease, quarter over quarter. PSMJ has been using the QMF as a predictor of the A/E/C industry’s health since 2003, tracking 12 major markets and 58 submarkets every three months. The company chose proposal activity to gauge the industry’s long-term outlook because it is among the earliest stages of the project lifecycle. Approximately 200 firms participate in the survey each quarter.
The Senior and Assisted Living submarket also performed well with a third-quarter NPMI of 49%. Only 4 of the 86 responding firms working in the senior care submarket reported declining proposal activity. The Senior/Assisted Living market has also been a consistently stellar performer in the QMF. Its NPMI hasn’t dipped below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2012.
“Multifamily and Senior/Assisted Living have been two of the hottest markets for proposal activity for quite some time, not only among the Housing submarkets, but throughout all 58 submarkets,” says PSMJ’s Greg Hart, a consultant who also oversees the QMF. “It is remarkable that both have seen such steady proposal growth for so long. Very few submarkets have been this consistently strong throughout the 16-year history of our survey.”
Housing (all submarkets) recorded an NPMI of 40% in the third quarter, a potentially noteworthy drop from the 59% recorded in the second quarter. After ranking the second-highest of the 12 major markets measured in the second quarter, Housing fell completely out of the top five in the third quarter. Transportation (49%) and Healthcare (46%) were tops among major markets.
Among the other Housing submarkets, Condominiums recorded a respectable NPMI of 24%, its sixth consecutive quarter in the mid-20% range. Individual single-family homes (15%) and subdivisions (8%) trailed the Housing field in the third quarter, falling markedly from 25% and 23%, respectively, in the second quarter. PSMJ Director and Senior Consultant Dave Burstein, PE, notes that the results are still positive, if potentially troubling in the longer term. He adds that lower mortgage interest rates on the horizon are likely to spur a rebound in the single-family and subdivision subsectors.
PSMJ Resources, Inc., based in Newton, Massachusetts, is a publishing, executive education, and advisory company dedicated to serving architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) organizations worldwide.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Mar 10, 2015
KTGY homes in on seniors with new studio
Its director, Doug Ahlstrom, says designs will emphasize socialization and community.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 10, 2015
Multifamily renovation now drives growth for national restoration business
Response Team 1 has established a national footprint through acquisitions.
Retail Centers | Mar 10, 2015
Retrofit projects give dying malls new purpose
Approximately one-third of the country’s 1,200 enclosed malls are dead or dying. The good news is that a sizable portion of that building stock is being repurposed.
Architects | Mar 9, 2015
Study explores why high ceilings are popular
High ceilings give us a sense of freedom, new research finds
Transit Facilities | Mar 4, 2015
5+design looks to mountains for Chinese transport hub design
The complex, Diamond Hill, will feature sloping rooflines and a mountain-like silhouette inspired by traditional Chinese landscape paintings.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 3, 2015
10 kitchen and bath design trends for 2015
From kitchens made for pet lovers to floating vanities, the nation's top kitchen and bath designers identify what's hot for 2015.
Sponsored | Modular Building | Mar 3, 2015
Modular construction brings affordable housing to many New Yorkers
After city officials waived certain zoning and density regulations, modular microunits smaller than 400 square feet are springing up in New York.
Modular Building | Feb 23, 2015
Edge construction: The future of modular
Can innovative project delivery methods, namely modular construction, bring down costs and offer a solution for housing in urban markets? FXFOWLE’s David Wallance discusses the possibilities for modular.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 23, 2015
Millennials to outgrow Baby Boomers in 2015
The Baby Boomer generation, once the nation's largest living generation, will be outpaced by the Millennials this year, according to the Pew Research Center.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 19, 2015
Is multifamily construction getting too frothy for demand?
Contractors are pushing full speed ahead, but CoStar Group thinks a slowdown might be in order this year.