By the end of 2015, 49 of 54 U.S. markets tracked by CoStar Group, the commercial real estate research firm, are expected to see their apartment vacancy rates increase.
That would suggest that supply in the multifamily sector is catching up with—or in several markets surpassing—demand. Last year, the 340,000 multifamily units started represented the highest level of construction since the 1980s. And some 20,000 new apartments are expected to come online in both Dallas and Denver alone this year.
Yet, despite the threat of oversupply there appears to be a consensus emerging, that positive demographic and economic forces could keep multifamily demand robust—and construction humming—at least through 2016.
The ever-optimistic National Association of Home Builders, for example, forecasts 358,000 multifamily starts in 2015, a level that Robert Denk, NAHB’s senior economist, thinks is “healthy and sustainable.” He told Multifamily Housing News recently that he expects that construction level to be maintained “for the next couple of years.” Denk also expects the country’s economic growth rates to be “high” in 2016.
In its Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2014 Report, CoStar acknowledges that developers may need to “dial back” new construction after 2015 to keep vacancies (which ended last year at their lowest point in 10 years) and rents at healthy levels. CoStar estimates that new supply could push vacancy rates to 5.5% by the end of 2015.
On the other hand, today’s renter cohort, comprised largely of Millennials, “will take longer to transition into home buying than any demographic group in the last 30 years—obviously a good trend for apartment owners,” says CoStar. The research firm also foresees a 2-million-person increase in Millennial employment over the next few years, resulting in 1.53 million new households. “Apartment investors will find plenty of demand for new product.”
While some renters eventually will start families and relocate to homes in the suburbs, “a larger share of older households will be in the rental market,” mostly for lifestyle reasons. CoStar expects landlords to make a concerted effort to address the needs of renters as they age.
Multifamily as an asset class now exceeds $3 trillion, according to Andrew Florance, Founder and CEO of CoStar Group, which has detailed information on over 450,000 apartment properties in its database, the industry’s largest. More than 100 million Americans now rent, and 30 million people move annually. On Feb. 17, CoStar re-launched Apartments.com, its website for online searches of apartments, condos, and rental homes. Florance projects that, based on anticipated demand, within the next 10 years CoStar Group could achieve $550 million in annual revenue and $250 million in annual cash flow from this site.
CoStar will invest $75 million into marketing Apartments.com in 2015, a multimedia campaign that is scheduled to kick off on March 1.
Related Stories
MFPRO+ News | Apr 15, 2024
Two multifamily management firms merge together
MEB Management Services, a Phoenix-based multifamily management company, and Weller Management, a third-party property management and consulting company, officially merged to become Bryten Real Estate Partners—creating a nationally recognized management company.
Mixed-Use | Apr 13, 2024
Former industrial marina gets adaptive reuse treatment
At its core, adaptive reuse is an active reimagining of the built environment in ways that serve the communities who use it. Successful adaptive reuse uncovers the latent potential in a place and uses it to meet people’s present needs.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 12, 2024
Legal cannabis has cities grappling with odor complaints
Relaxed pot laws have led to a backlash of complaints linked to the odor emitted from smoking and vaping. To date, 24 states have legalized or decriminalized marijuana and several others have made it available for medicinal use.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 12, 2024
Habitat starts leasing Cassidy on Canal, a new luxury rental high-rise in Chicago
New 33-story Class A rental tower, designed by SCB, will offer 343 rental units.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 10, 2024
5 key design trends shaping tomorrow’s rental apartments
The multifamily landscape is ever-evolving as changing demographics, health concerns, and work patterns shape what tenants are looking for in their next home.
Mixed-Use | Apr 9, 2024
A surging master-planned community in Utah gets its own entertainment district
Since its construction began two decades ago, Daybreak, the 4,100-acre master-planned community in South Jordan, Utah, has been a catalyst and model for regional growth. The latest addition is a 200-acre mixed-use entertainment district that will serve as a walkable and bikeable neighborhood within the community, anchored by a minor-league baseball park and a cinema/entertainment complex.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 9, 2024
March reports record gains in multifamily rent growth in 20 months
Asking rents for multifamily units increased $8 during the month to $1,721; year-over-year growth grew 30 basis points to 0.9 percent—a normal seasonal growth pattern according to Yardi Matrix.
Industry Research | Apr 4, 2024
Expenses per multifamily unit reach $8,950 nationally
Overall expenses per multifamily unit rose to $8,950, a 7.1% increase year-over-year (YOY) as of January 2024, according to an examination of more than 20,000 properties analyzed by Yardi Matrix.
Affordable Housing | Apr 1, 2024
Biden Administration considers ways to influence local housing regulations
The Biden Administration is considering how to spur more affordable housing construction with strategies to influence reform of local housing regulations.
Affordable Housing | Apr 1, 2024
Chicago voters nix ‘mansion tax’ to fund efforts to reduce homelessness
Chicago voters in March rejected a proposed “mansion tax” that would have funded efforts to reduce homelessness in the city.