Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Architects | Apr 6, 2023
New tool from Perkins&Will will make public health data more accessible to designers and architects
Called PRECEDE, the dashboard is an open-source tool developed by Perkins&Will that draws on federal data to identify and assess community health priorities within the U.S. by location. The firm was recently awarded a $30,000 ASID Foundation Grant to enhance the tool.
Architects | Apr 6, 2023
Design for belonging: An introduction to inclusive design
The foundation of modern, formalized inclusive design can be traced back to the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) in 1990. The movement has developed beyond the simple rules outlined by ADA regulations resulting in features like mothers’ rooms, prayer rooms, and inclusive restrooms.
Sustainability | Apr 4, 2023
NIBS report: Decarbonizing the U.S. building sector will require massive, coordinated effort
Decarbonizing the building sector will require a massive, strategic, and coordinated effort by the public and private sectors, according to a report by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS).
Legislation | Mar 24, 2023
New York lawmakers set sights on unsafe lithium-ion batteries used in electric bikes and scooters
Lawmakers in New York City and statewide have moved to quell the growing number of fires caused by lithium-ion batteries used in electric bikes and scooters.
Government Buildings | Mar 24, 2023
19 federal buildings named GSA Design Awards winners
After a six-year hiatus, the U.S. General Services Administration late last year resumed its esteemed GSA Design Awards program. In all, 19 federal building projects nationwide were honored with 2022 GSA Design Awards, eight with Honor Awards and 11 with Citations.
Mass Timber | Mar 19, 2023
A 100% mass timber construction project is under way in North Carolina
An office building 100% made from mass timber has started construction within the Live Oak Bank campus in Wilmington, N.C. The 67,000-sf structure, a joint building venture between the GCs Swinerton and Wilmington-headquartered Monteith Construction, is scheduled for completion in early 2024.
Urban Planning | Mar 16, 2023
Three interconnected solutions for 'saving' urban centers
Gensler Co-CEO Andy Cohen explores how the global pandemic affected city life, and gives three solutions for revitalizing these urban centers.
Sponsored | Cladding and Facade Systems | Mar 15, 2023
Metal cladding trends and innovations
Metal cladding is on a growth trajectory globally. This is reflected in rising demand for rainscreen cladding and architectural metal coatings. This course covers the latest trends and innovations in the metal cladding market.
Mixed-Use | Mar 11, 2023
Austin mixed-use development will provide two million sf of office, retail, and residential space
In Austin, Texas, the seven-building East Riverside Gateway complex will provide a mixed-use community next to the city’s planned Blue Line light rail, which will connect the Austin Bergstrom International Airport with downtown Austin. Planned and designed by Steinberg Hart, the development will include over 2 million sf of office, retail, and residential space, as well as amenities, such as a large park, that are intended to draw tech workers and young families.
Architects | Mar 8, 2023
Is Zoom zapping your zip? Here are two strategies to help creative teams do their best work
Collaborating virtually requires a person to filter out the periphery of their field of vision and focus on the glow of the screen. Zoom fatigue is a well-documented result of our over-reliance on one method of communication to work. We need time for focus work but working in isolation limits creative outcomes and innovations that come from in-person collaboration, write GBBN's Eric Puryear, AIA, and Mandy Woltjer.
