The nonresidential building market was hamstrung by weather-related delays during the first part of the 2014, but conditions improved dramatically throughout the rest of the year to finish with greater than anticipated spending levels. The commercial construction sector is now looking at double-digit increases in 2015, led by vigorous levels of demand for hotels and office buildings.
The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 7.7% increase in 2015, with next year’s projection nudging up to 8.2%.
VIDEO: Q1 2015 Economic Forecast
“This is the first time since the Great Recession that every major building category is projected to see increases in spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But by far, the most significant driver that will fuel greater expansion in the marketplace is the revival in the institutional sector, especially with growing demand for new healthcare and education facilities, which alone traditionally account for a third of spending on new building construction.”
Baker continued, “The overall construction industry appears to be on very solid ground for the next two years. That said, uncertainties in international economies, potential labor shortages, lower energy costs, rising interest rates and construction costs all are factors that we will be watching closely to see how they may adversely impact the marketplace.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts
Overall nonresidential building
2015: 7.7%
2016: 8.2%
Commercial/industrial
2015: 11.8%
2016: 10.4%
Hotels
2015: 15.3%
2016: 10.4%
Office buildings
2015: 12.9%
2016: 11.5%
Industrial facilities
2015: 10.5%
2016: 10.1%
Retail
2015: 10.1%
2016: 9.0%
Institutional
2015: 5.0%
2016: 5.4%
Amusement/recreation
2015: 9.1%
2016: 5.3%
Education
2015: 4.7%
2016: 5.2%
Healthcare facilities
2015: 4.7%
2016: 6.2%
Public safety
2015: 1.7%
2016: 3.6%
Religious
2015: 1.2%
2016: 3.6%
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 16 years.
Related Stories
Energy-Efficient Design | Oct 24, 2022
Roadmap shows how federal buildings can reach zero embodied carbon emissions by 2050
The Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has released a roadmap that it says charts a path for federal buildings projects to achieve zero embodied carbon emissions by 2050.
Higher Education | Oct 24, 2022
Wellesley College science complex modernizes facility while preserving architectural heritage
A recently completed expansion and renovation of Wellesley College’s science complex yielded a modernized structure for 21st century STEM education while preserving important historical features.
Mixed-Use | Oct 20, 2022
ROI on resilient multifamily construction can be as high as 72%
A new study that measured the economic value of using FORTIFIED Multifamily, a voluntary beyond-code construction and re-roofing method developed by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), found the return can be as high as 72%.
40 Under 40 | Oct 19, 2022
Meet the 40 Under 40 class of 2022
Each year, the editors of Building Design+Construction honor 40 architects engineers, contractors, and real estate developers as BD+C 40 Under 40 awards winners. These AEC professionals are recognized for their career achievements, passion for the AEC profession, involvement with AEC industry organizations, and service to their communities.
Designers | Oct 19, 2022
Architecture Billings Index moderates but remains healthy
For the twentieth consecutive month architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in September, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Building Team | Oct 18, 2022
Brasfield & Gorrie chairman’s home vandalized by anti-development activists
Activists vandalized the home and vehicles of Miller Gorrie, chairman of Birmingham-based Brasfield & Gorrie, in protest of a planned $90 million, 85-acre police, fire and public safety training center in Atlanta.
Mixed-Use | Oct 18, 2022
Mixed-use San Diego tower inspired by coastal experience and luxury travel
The new 525 Olive mixed use San Diego tower was inspired by the coastal experience and luxury travel.
University Buildings | Oct 18, 2022
A carbon-neutral-ready university campus opens in Hong Kong
In early September, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) officially opened its new, KPF-designed campus in Nansha, Guangzhou (GZ).
Codes and Standards | Oct 17, 2022
Ambitious state EV adoption goals put pressure on multifamily owners to provide chargers
California’s recently announced ban on the sale of new gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035—and New York’s recent decision to follow suit—are putting pressure on multifamily property owners to install charging stations for tenants.
Justice Facilities | Oct 17, 2022
San Antonio’s new courthouse aims to provide safety and security while also welcoming the public
The San Antonio Federal Courthouse, which opened earlier this year, replaces a courthouse that had been constructed as a pavilion for the 1968 World’s Fair.