Uncertainty and high risk are kryptonite to any investment community, and the healthcare real estate sector has seen a heavy dose of both since the beginning of the Great Recession.
From the economic crash of 2008-09, to the enactment of Obamacare in 2010, to the feds’ latest experiment—Ryancare, Republicare, Trumpcare, whatever you want to call it—no other major business sector has dealt with the level of chaos that healthcare owners, developers, providers, and consumers have faced.
Even as Speaker Paul Ryan’s Obamacare replacement died on the vine in Congress, President Trump and the GOP have no plans to walk away from their promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
So, with a long road of political and financial uncertainty ahead for the healthcare sector, what does this mean for the nonresidential construction industry’s third-largest sector ($41 billion in annual construction spending)?
In the days and weeks following Trump’s historic victory, the consensus among healthcare sector analysts and AEC professionals was that the repeal and replace efforts would cause healthcare owners and developers to pump the brakes on major real estate construction and renovation plans in the pipeline. This, of course, was the case during the early days of the ACA, when many healthcare organizations halted construction projects until they could fully understand the implications of the law, especially the reimbursement structure.
More recent projections paint a slightly more positive picture for the healthcare construction market, at least in the near-term. In its latest healthcare real estate investment update, released last month (http://tinyurl.com/CBREhc17), CBRE Healthcare reported that healthcare providers “appear to be moving along with their strategy”—including their real estate plans—despite the turmoil in Washington, D.C.
“The ACA was a wake-up call for healthcare providers,” the report states. “In the last several years, healthcare providers have focused on ways to deliver care more efficiently and capture a greater market share to further their economies of scale. For developers, this means more outpatient facilities and a push to expand into new markets.”
Other real estate experts are not as upbeat. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a respected housing market analyst based in Irvine, Calif., released a 68-page white paper last month (http://tinyurl.com/JBRChc17) that identifies healthcare as one of three major industries (the others being technology and automotive) that are “overheated and will likely be shedding jobs sometime soon.”
The most alarming indicator cited by JBRC: the sector’s rapid accumulation of debt—308% since 2009. This rate of growth far outpaces industry job and GDP growth, a circumstance that, historically, has triggered industry downturns.
Related Stories
| Jul 19, 2013
Reconstruction Sector Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Structure Tone, DPR, Gilbane top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest reconstruction contractor and construction management firms in the U.S.
| Jul 19, 2013
Reconstruction Sector Engineering Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
URS, STV, Wiss Janney Elstner top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest reconstruction engineering and engineering/architecture firms in the U.S.
| Jul 19, 2013
Reconstruction Sector Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Stantec, HOK, HDR top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest reconstruction architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
| Jul 19, 2013
Renovation, adaptive reuse stay strong, providing fertile ground for growth [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Increasingly, owners recognize that existing buildings represent a considerable resource in embodied energy, which can often be leveraged for lower front-end costs and a faster turnaround than new construction.
| Jul 18, 2013
Do third-corridor designs actually work for healthcare environments?
A recent study of a nursing unit assessed whether the space's third corridor does what it was intended to do: reduce noise and distraction to patients and nursing staff.
| Jul 12, 2013
12 award-winning healthcare projects [slideshow]
AIA's Academy of Architecture for Health announced the recipients of the 2013 AIA National Healthcare Design Awards.
| Jul 2, 2013
LEED v4 gets green light, will launch this fall
The U.S. Green Building Council membership has voted to adopt LEED v4, the next update to the world’s premier green building rating system.
| Jul 1, 2013
Report: Global construction market to reach $15 trillion by 2025
A new report released today forecasts the volume of construction output will grow by more than 70% to $15 trillion worldwide by 2025.
| Jun 28, 2013
Building owners cite BIM/VDC as 'most exciting trend' in facilities management, says Mortenson report
A recent survey of more than 60 building owners and facility management professionals by Mortenson Construction shows that BIM/VDC is top of mind among owner professionals.