Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Feb 29, 2024
Manny Gonzalez, FAIA, inducted into Best in American Living Awards Hall of Fame
Manny Gonzalez, FAIA, has been inducted into the BALA Hall of Fame.
K-12 Schools | Feb 29, 2024
Average age of U.S. school buildings is just under 50 years
The average age of a main instructional school building in the United States is 49 years, according to a survey by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). About 38% of schools were built before 1970. Roughly half of the schools surveyed have undergone a major building renovation or addition.
MFPRO+ Research | Feb 28, 2024
New download: BD+C's 2023 Multifamily Amenities report
New research from Building Design+Construction and Multifamily Pro+ highlights the 127 top amenities that developers, property owners, architects, contractors, and builders are providing in today’s apartment, condominium, student housing, and senior living communities.
AEC Tech | Feb 28, 2024
How to harness LIDAR and BIM technology for precise building data, equipment needs
By following the Scan to Point Cloud + Point Cloud to BIM process, organizations can leverage the power of LIDAR and BIM technology at the same time. This optimizes the documentation of existing building conditions, functions, and equipment needs as a current condition and as a starting point for future physical plant expansion projects.
Data Centers | Feb 28, 2024
What’s next for data center design in 2024
Nuclear power, direct-to-chip liquid cooling, and data centers as learning destinations are among the emerging design trends in the data center sector, according to Scott Hays, Sector Leader, Sustainable Design, with HED.
Windows and Doors | Feb 28, 2024
DOE launches $2 million prize to advance cost-effective, energy-efficient commercial windows
The U.S. Department of Energy launched the American-Made Building Envelope Innovation Prize—Secondary Glazing Systems. The program will offer up to $2 million to encourage production of high-performance, cost-effective commercial windows.
AEC Innovators | Feb 28, 2024
How Suffolk Construction identifies ConTech and PropTech startups for investment, adoption
Contractor giant Suffolk Construction has invested in 27 ConTech and PropTech companies since 2019 through its Suffolk Technologies venture capital firm. Parker Mundt, Suffolk Technologies’ Vice President–Platforms, recently spoke with Building Design+Construction about his company’s investment strategy.
Performing Arts Centers | Feb 27, 2024
Frank Gehry-designed expansion of the Colburn School performing arts center set to break ground
In April, the Colburn School, an institute for music and dance education and performance, will break ground on a 100,000-sf expansion designed by architect Frank Gehry. Located in downtown Los Angeles, the performing arts center will join the neighboring Walt Disney Concert Hall and The Grand by Gehry, forming the largest concentration of Gehry-designed buildings in the world.
Construction Costs | Feb 27, 2024
Experts see construction material prices stabilizing in 2024
Gordian’s Q1 2024 Quarterly Construction Cost Insights Report brings good news: Although there are some materials whose prices have continued to show volatility, costs at a macro level are returning to a level of stability, suggesting predictable historical price escalation factors.
High-rise Construction | Feb 23, 2024
Designing a new frontier in Seattle’s urban core
Graphite Design Group shares the design for Frontier, a 540,000-sf tower in a five-block master plan for Seattle-based tech leader Amazon.
