Design that “puts people back at the center” is now the driving force behind resilient, livable cities, according to Gensler’s just-released 2018 Design Forecast, “Shaping the Future of Cities.”
The 61-page report, which can be downloaded from here, is a collection of more than 200 trends that are defining design across the globe. The report is organized into three sections—Work, Lifestyle, and Cities—and is framed by five forces that Gensler sees as having the greatest impact on businesses, cities, and human experiences: demographic shifts, technology driven disruption, rapid urbanization, climate change, and worldwide volatility.
Throughout the report, Gensler draws upon its own research and portfolio of projects to illustrate trends across myriad typologies. Each of the report’s chapters provides statistical tidbits from a variety of sources that call out trends and dynamics that AEC firms and their clients can’t ignore.
Some examples:
•From 2017 to 2027, it’s predicted that the U.S. will face a shortage of 8.2 million laborers—the most significant deficit in the past 50 years. “To succeed, organizations must put people first: investing in the individual, diversifying work spaces, and reinforcing a shared culture and mission,” states Gensler.
•“By 2020, 31 billion devices and 4.8 billion people will be connected to the Internet,” according to the research firm Gartner.
•Global coworking spaces will grow from 14,411 in 2017 to over 30,000 in 2022. The number of worldwide coworking members will nearly triple to over five million.
•Forbes estimated last year that there could be 10 million self-driving cars on the road by 2020. The Gensler Research Institute predicts autonomous vehicles will completely change cities. “Building form will change radically as design is dictated less—or not at all—by parking requirements, which will decrease dramatically.”
•Credit Suisse predicts that as online sales march toward 35% of all retail sales by 2030 (from 17% today), between one fifth to one quarter of American malls could close by as early as 2022.
Time and again, Gensler’s forecast returns to its primary thesis: that regardless of technological advances or political and economic uncertainties, design must factor in human needs and social interactions to be effective. For instance, Gensler foresees the next generation of office building as drawing employees back into the office. “Mobility will remain an important part of work, but the value of face-to-face remains undisputed,” the report states. “On-site spaces that support a variety of work modes—including social—create dynamic developments and yield longer-term tenants.”
The Boston Consulting Group's office in New York City features staircases that facilitate floor-to-floor interaction and employee movement. Image: Gensler
That prediction dovetails with Gensler’s expectation that multipurpose buildings “are the future,” and that smart buildings “are critical to the workplace experience.” But as data multiply exponentially, “companies will need to expand their capabilities to harness and interpret their internal workplace data.”
Lifestyle design is now reckoning with trends that are making single-use spaces obsolete. Frictionless, seamless design is becoming ubiquitous, with convenience being a differentiator, as consumers take more control of their experiences in ways that shape, and reshape, brand identities.
Gensler sees “smart cities” in terms of their adaptability and resilience. As engines of innovation, cities “are nurturing a new mix” of businesses and people. Their leaders are in the vanguard of climate action “because they depend on it” for survival and growth. And wellness is the new measure of livability. “Health has become a major factor in urban and community planning, as research and public awareness about the link between them grows,” the report states.
Related Stories
| May 21, 2014
Gehry unveils plan for renovation, expansion of Philadelphia Museum of Art [slideshow]
Gehry's final design reorganizes and expands the building, adding more than 169,000 sf of space, much of it below the iconic structure.
| May 21, 2014
Architecture Billings Index in the negative for second consecutive month
The March ABI score was 49.6, up slightly from a mark of 48.8 in March, but still below the growth threshold of 50.
| May 20, 2014
Kinetic Architecture: New book explores innovations in active façades
The book, co-authored by Arup's Russell Fortmeyer, illustrates the various ways architects, consultants, and engineers approach energy and comfort by manipulating air, water, and light through the layers of passive and active building envelope systems.
| May 20, 2014
Using fire-rated glass in exterior applications
Fire-rated glazing and framing assemblies are just as beneficial on building exteriors as they are on the inside. But knowing how to select the correct fire-rated glass for exterior applications can be confusing. SPONSORED CONTENT
| May 20, 2014
World's best new skyscrapers: Renzo Piano's The Shard, China's 'doughnut hotel' voted to Emporis list
Eight other high-rise projects were named Emporis Skyscraper Award winners, including DC Tower 1 by Dominique Perrault Architecture and Tour Carpe Diem by Robert A.M. Stern.
| May 19, 2014
What can architects learn from nature’s 3.8 billion years of experience?
In a new report, HOK and Biomimicry 3.8 partnered to study how lessons from the temperate broadleaf forest biome, which houses many of the world’s largest population centers, can inform the design of the built environment.
| May 19, 2014
Why e-commerce won't kill 'bricks and mortar' retail sector
Despite emerging structural challenges and newly-announced store closings, such as those of Radio Shack and Office Depot, the U.S. retail sector has continued on its solid recovery.
| May 16, 2014
BoA, USGBC to offer $25,000 grants for green affordable housing projects
The Affordable Green Neighborhoods Grant Program will offer 14 grants to developers of affordable housing in North America who are committed to building sustainable communities through the LEED for Neighborhood Development program.
| May 16, 2014
Toyo Ito leads petition to scrap Zaha Hadid's 2020 Olympic Stadium project
Ito and other Japanese architects cite excessive costs, massive size, and the project's potentially negative impact on surrounding public spaces as reasons for nixing Hadid's plan.
| May 15, 2014
Paints, coatings, and sealants: 10 new ways to seal the deal
Color-shifting finishes, dry-erase surfaces, and stain-blocking paints are highlighted in this round up of new offerings in paints, coatings, sealants, and finishes.
