Despite deteriorating economic conditions, nonresidential construction spending projected to increase through 2023

Construction spending on buildings is projected to increase just over nine percent this year and another six percent in 2023, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).

While the outlook for the broader economy has become more uncertain, the prospects for construction spending have improved since the beginning of the year. The outlook from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel, in its mid-year update, is more optimistic than what was projected at the beginning of the year, largely due to the extremely strong gains in the manufacturing category, as well as surprising strength in retail facilities. The industrial market is expected to pace the building construction upturn this year and next, while the institutional sector is forecast to begin its recovery this year and accelerate moving into 2023.

“The construction industry is not without its own set of challenges,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Supply chain disruptions coupled with general inflation has pushed up inputs to construction by almost 15 percent over the past year. However, challenges to the economy and the construction industry notwithstanding, the outlook for the nonresidential building market appears promising for this year and next.”

Consensus Construction Forecast — Courtesy AIA.

The Architectural Billings Index measures the general sentiment of U.S. architecture firms about the health of the construction market by measuring 1) design billings and 2) design contracts. Any score above 50 means that, among the architecture firms surveyed, more firms than not reported seeing increases in design work vs. the previous month.