Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
AIA approves Sika Sarnafil’s continuing education courses offering sustainable design credits
Two continuing education courses offered by Sika Sarnafil have been approved by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and are now certified to fulfill the AIA’s new Sustainable Design continuing education requirements.
| Aug 11, 2010
HNTB, Arup, Walter P Moore among SMPS National Marketing Communications Awards winners
The Society for Marketing Professional Services (SMPS) is pleased to announce the 2009 recipients of the 32nd Annual National Marketing Communications Awards (MCA). This annual competition is the longest-standing, most prestigious awards program recognizing excellence in marketing and communications by professional services firms in the design and building industry.
| Aug 11, 2010
'Flexible' building designed to physically respond to the environment
The ecoFLEX project, designed by a team from Shepley Bulfinch, has won a prestigious 2009 Unbuilt Architecture Design Award from the Boston Society of Architects. EcoFLEX features heat-sensitive assemblies composed of a series of bi-material strips. The assemblies’ form modulate with the temperature to create varying levels of shading and wind shielding, flexing when heated to block sunlight and contracting when cooled to allow breezes to pass through the screen.
| Aug 11, 2010
New book provides energy efficiency guidance for hotels
Recommendations on achieving 30% energy savings over minimum code requirements are contained in the newly published Advanced Energy Design Guide for Highway Lodging. The energy savings guidance for design of new hotels provides a first step toward achieving a net-zero-energy building.
| Aug 11, 2010
Perkins+Will master plans Vedanta University teaching hospital in India
Working together with the Anil Agarwal Foundation, Perkins+Will developed the master plan for the Medical Precinct of a new teaching hospital in a remote section of Puri, Orissa, India. The hospital is part of an ambitious plan to develop this rural area into a global center of education and healthcare that would be on par with Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford.
| Aug 11, 2010
Burt Hill, HOK top BD+C's ranking of the nation's 100 largest university design firms
A ranking of the Top 100 University Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
PBK, DLR Group among nation's largest K-12 school design firms, according to BD+C's Giants 300 report
A ranking of the Top 75 K-12 School Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
