Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
MFPRO+ News | Feb 15, 2024
Nine states pledge to transition to heat pumps for residential HVAC and water heating
Nine states have signed a joint agreement to accelerate the transition to residential building electrification by significantly expanding heat pump sales to meet heating, cooling, and water heating demand. The Memorandum of Understanding was signed by directors of environmental agencies from California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island.
MFPRO+ News | Feb 15, 2024
Oregon, California, Maine among states enacting policies to spur construction of missing middle housing
Although the number of new apartment building units recently reached the highest point in nearly 50 years, construction of duplexes, triplexes, and other buildings of from two to nine units made up just 1% of new housing units built in 2022. A few states have recently enacted new laws to spur more construction of these missing middle housing options.
Green | Feb 15, 2024
FEMA issues guidance on funding for net zero buildings
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently unveiled new guidance on additional assistance funding for net zero buildings. The funding is available for implementing net-zero energy projects with a tie to disaster recovery or mitigation.
Hospital Design Trends | Feb 14, 2024
Plans for a massive research hospital in Dallas anticipates need for child healthcare
Children’s Health and the UT Southwestern Medical Center have unveiled their plans for a new $5 billion pediatric health campus and research hospital on more than 33 acres within Dallas’ Southwestern Medical District.
Contractors | Feb 13, 2024
The average U.S. contractor has 8.4 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of January 2024
Associated Builders and Contractors reported today that its Construction Backlog Indicator declined to 8.4 months in January, according to an ABC member survey conducted from Jan. 22 to Feb. 4. The reading is down 0.6 months from January 2023.
Codes | Feb 9, 2024
Illinois releases stretch energy code for building construction
Illinois is the latest jurisdiction to release a stretch energy code that provides standards for communities to mandate more efficient building construction. St. Louis, Mo., and a few states, including California, Colorado, and Massachusetts, currently have stretch codes in place.
Giants 400 | Feb 8, 2024
Top 10 Telecommunications Building Construction Firms for 2023
AECOM, LeChase Construction Services, Robins & Morton, and Salas O'Brien top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest telecommunications building general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 8, 2024
Top 20 Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) Construction Firms for 2023
Barton Malow, DPR Construction, Hensel Phelps, and Whiting-Turner top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest integrated project delivery (IPD) construction firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 8, 2024
Top 90 Design-Build Construction Firms for 2023
Hensel Phelps, Ryan Companies US, Gray Construction, Haskell, and Burns & McDonnell top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest design-build construction firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 8, 2024
Top 20 Public Library Construction Firms for 2023
Gilbane Building Company, Skanska USA, Manhattan Construction, McCownGordon Construction, and C.W. Driver Companies top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest public library general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.