Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu forecasts another strong year for construction sector performance, yet warns about inflationary pressures, according to a 2019 economic outlook.
Job growth, high backlog and healthy infrastructure investment all spell good news for the industry. However, historically low unemployment has created a construction workforce shortage of an estimated 500,000 positions, which is leading to increased compensation costs.
“U.S. economic performance has been brilliant of late. Sure, there has been a considerable volume of negativity regarding the propriety of tariffs, shifting immigration policy, etc., but the headline statistics make it clear that domestic economic performance is solid,” said Basu. “Nowhere is this more evident than the U.S. labor market. As of July, there were a record-setting 6.94 million job openings in the United States, and construction unemployment reached a low of 3.6 percent in October.”
While the U.S. economy is thriving, Basu cited the potential long-term impact of rising interest rates and materials prices—up 7.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October—on the U.S. construction market. In addition, the workforce shortage will continue to influence the market in the coming year.
That said, Basu stressed that a recession is unlikely in 2019, even with recent financial market volatility. Indicators such as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which often signals an economic downturn, have continued to tick higher, implying current momentum will continue for at least two to three more quarters. In addition, ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator, which reflects the amount of work that will be performed by commercial and industrial contractors in the months ahead, reported a record backlog of 9.9 months in the second quarter of 2018.
While optimistic for next year, Basu warned that, “Contractors should be aware that recessions often follow within two years of peak confidence. The average contractor is likely to be quite busy in 2019, but beyond that, the outlook is quite murky.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Nov 2, 2017
Construction spending up in September; Down on a YOY basis
Nonresidential construction spending is down 2.9% on a year-over-year basis.
Market Data | Oct 19, 2017
Architecture Billings Index backslides slightly
Business conditions easing in the West.
Industry Research | Oct 3, 2017
Nonresidential construction spending stabilizes in August
Spending on nonresidential construction services is still down on a YOY basis.
Market Data | Sep 21, 2017
Architecture Billings Index continues growth streak
Design services remain in high demand across all regions and in all major sectors.
Market Data | Sep 21, 2017
How brand research delivers competitive advantage
Brand research is a process that firms can use to measure their reputation and visibility in the marketplace.
Contractors | Sep 19, 2017
Commercial Construction Index finds high optimism in U.S. commercial construction industry
Hurricane recovery efforts expected to heighten concerns about labor scarcities in the south, where two-thirds of contractors already face worker shortages.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 15, 2017
Hurricane Harvey damaged fewer apartments in greater Houston than estimated
As of Sept. 14, 166 properties reported damage to 8,956 units, about 1.4% of the total supply of apartments, according to ApartmentData.com.
Hotel Facilities | Sep 6, 2017
Marriott has the largest construction pipeline of any franchise company in the U.S.
Marriott has the most rooms currently under construction with 482 Projects/67,434 Rooms.
Market Data | Sep 5, 2017
Nonresidential construction declines again, public and private sector down in July
Weakness in spending was widespread.
Market Data | Aug 29, 2017
Hidden opportunities emerge from construction industry challenges
JLL’s latest construction report shows stability ahead with tech and innovation leading the way.