Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Oct 12, 2010
Building 13 Naval Station, Great Lakes, Ill.
27th Annual Reconstruction Awards—Gold Award. Designed by Chicago architect Jarvis Hunt and constructed in 1903, Building 13 is one of 39 structures within the Great Lakes Historic District at Naval Station Great Lakes, Ill.
| Oct 12, 2010
From ‘Plain Box’ to Community Asset
The Mid-Ohio Foodbank helps provide 55,000 meals a day to the hungry. Who would guess that it was once a nondescript mattress factory?
| Oct 11, 2010
HGA wins 25-Year Award from AIA Minnesota
HGA Architects and Engineers won a 25-Year Award from AIA Minnesota for the Willow Lake Laboratory.
| Oct 8, 2010
Union Bank’S San Diego HQ awarded LEED Gold
Union Bank’s San Diego headquarters building located at 530 B Street has been awarded LEED Gold certification from the Green Building Certification Institute under the standards established by the U.S. Green Building Council. Gold status was awarded to six buildings across the United States in the most recent certification and Union Bank’s San Diego headquarters building is one of only two in California.
| Oct 6, 2010
Windows Keep Green Goals in View
The DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory has almost 600 window openings, and yet it's targeting LEED Platinum, net-zero energy use, and 50% improvement over ASHRAE 90.1. How the window ‘problem’ is part of the solution.
| Sep 21, 2010
New BOMA-Kingsley Report Shows Compression in Utilities and Total Operating Expenses
A new report from the Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) International and Kingsley Associates shows that property professionals are trimming building operating expenses to stay competitive in today’s challenging marketplace. The report, which analyzes data from BOMA International’s 2010 Experience Exchange Report® (EER), revealed a $0.09 (1.1 percent) decrease in total operating expenses for U.S. private-sector buildings during 2009.
| Sep 13, 2010
Triple-LEED for Engineering Firm's HQ
With more than 250 LEED projects in the works, Enermodal Engineering is Canada's most prolific green building consulting firm. In 2007, with the firm outgrowing its home office in Kitchener, Ont., the decision was made go all out with a new green building. The goal: triple Platinum for New Construction, Commercial Interiors, and Existing Buildings: O&M.
