The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
Construction Costs | Feb 22, 2024
K-12 school construction costs for 2024
Data from Gordian breaks down the average cost per square foot for four different types of K-12 school buildings (elementary schools, junior high schools, high schools, and vocational schools) across 10 U.S. cities.
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Feb 22, 2024
Crystal Lagoons: A deep dive into real estate's most extreme guest amenity
These year-round, manmade, crystal clear blue lagoons offer a groundbreaking technology with immense potential to redefine the concept of water amenities. However, navigating regulatory challenges and ensuring long-term sustainability are crucial to success with Crystal Lagoons.
Architects | Feb 21, 2024
Architecture Billings Index remains in 'declining billings' state in January 2024
Architecture firm billings remained soft entering into 2024, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 46.2 in January. Any score below 50.0 indicates decreasing business conditions.
AEC Tech | Feb 20, 2024
AI for construction: What kind of tool can artificial intelligence become for AEC teams?
Avoiding the hype and gathering good data are half the battle toward making artificial intelligence tools useful for performing design, operational, and jobsite tasks.
Building Tech | Feb 20, 2024
Construction method featuring LEGO-like bricks wins global innovation award
A new construction method featuring LEGO-like bricks made from a renewable composite material took first place for building innovations at the 2024 JEC Composites Innovation Awards in Paris, France.
AEC Tech | Feb 20, 2024
ABC releases technology guide for AI in construction
Associated Builders and Contractors has released an artificial intelligence (AI) technology guide for the U.S. construction industry. AI in Construction — What Does It Mean for Our Contractors? outlines definitions, construction use cases, and considerations for the implementation of AI in construction.
Codes and Standards | Feb 20, 2024
AISC, AIA release second part of design assist guidelines for the structural steel industry
The American Institute of Steel Construction and AIA Contract Documents have released the second part of a document intended to provide guidance for three common collaboration strategies.
Student Housing | Feb 19, 2024
UC Law San Francisco’s newest building provides student housing at below-market rental rates
Located in San Francisco’s Tenderloin and Civic Center neighborhoods, UC Law SF’s newest building helps address the city’s housing crisis by providing student housing at below-market rental rates. The $282 million, 365,000-sf facility at 198 McAllister Street enables students to live on campus while also helping to regenerate the neighborhood.
MFPRO+ News | Feb 15, 2024
UL Solutions launches indoor environmental quality verification designation for building construction projects
UL Solutions recently launched UL Verified Healthy Building Mark for New Construction, an indoor environmental quality verification designation for building construction projects.
MFPRO+ News | Feb 15, 2024
Nine states pledge to transition to heat pumps for residential HVAC and water heating
Nine states have signed a joint agreement to accelerate the transition to residential building electrification by significantly expanding heat pump sales to meet heating, cooling, and water heating demand. The Memorandum of Understanding was signed by directors of environmental agencies from California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island.