Spending on nonresidential building construction is expected to increase almost four percent this year and more than two percent in 2020, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Continued volatility has not impacted construction spending as the projections by the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—are largely unchanged from where they stood at the beginning of the year. While some individual construction sectors are projected to see declines over the next 18 months, the consensus projects overall building construction activity will continue to expand.
“Outlook showing nonresidential construction activity continuing to expand reflects the underlying strength of the economy, even this late in the business cycle,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, there are several potential threats to continued healthy growth in the broader economy as well as in the construction industry that would point to slower economic growth in future quarters.”
The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jan 26, 2022
2022 construction forecast: Healthcare, retail, industrial sectors to lead ‘healthy rebound’ for nonresidential construction
A panel of construction industry economists forecasts 5.4 percent growth for the nonresidential building sector in 2022, and a 6.1 percent bump in 2023.
Market Data | Jan 24, 2022
U.S. hotel construction pipeline stands at 4,814 projects/581,953 rooms at year-end 2021
Projects scheduled to start construction in the next 12 months stand at 1,821 projects/210,890 rooms at the end of the fourth quarter.
Market Data | Jan 19, 2022
Architecture firms end 2021 on a strong note
December’s Architectural Billings Index (ABI) score of 52.0 was an increase from 51.0 in November.
Market Data | Jan 13, 2022
Materials prices soar 20% in 2021 despite moderating in December
Most contractors in association survey list costs as top concern in 2022.
Market Data | Jan 12, 2022
Construction firms forsee growing demand for most types of projects
Seventy-four percent of firms plan to hire in 2022 despite supply-chain and labor challenges.
Market Data | Jan 7, 2022
Construction adds 22,000 jobs in December
Jobless rate falls to 5% as ongoing nonresidential recovery offsets rare dip in residential total.
Market Data | Jan 6, 2022
Inflation tempers optimism about construction in North America
Rider Levett Bucknall’s latest report cites labor shortages and supply chain snags among causes for cost increases.
Market Data | Jan 6, 2022
A new survey offers a snapshot of New York’s construction market
Anchin’s poll of 20 AEC clients finds a “growing optimism,” but also multiple pressure points.
Market Data | Jan 3, 2022
Construction spending in November increases from October and year ago
Construction spending in November totaled $1.63 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Market Data | Dec 22, 2021
Two out of three metro areas add construction jobs from November 2020 to November 2021
Construction employment increased in 237 or 66% of 358 metro areas over the last 12 months.