Yardi Matrix has released its Q4 2023 Multifamily Supply Forecast, emphasizing a short-term spike and plateau of new construction. According to the report, Yardi finds that construction starts have remained "relatively robust" in the first half of 2023, with the under-construction pipeline increasing by 7.6% in Q3.
Because of this, new activity is starting to slow. The forecast for project completions has increased by 5.8% for 2024 and 6.2% for 2025. Completions for later years are forecasted to decrease by roughly 5 percent, according to Yardi.
Long-Term Multifamily Supply Forecast
"We continue to expect a mild recession will start in late 2023 or early 2024," the report states. Yardi's forecast for 2026 has therefore been reduced by 5.8% to 377,622 units, while the baseline forecast for 2027 and 2028 completions has been similarly reduced by 4.7% and 5.4% respectively.
For the multifamily markets monitored by Yardi Matrix, there are currently 1.2 million units within the under-construction pipeline. Of these units, just under 480,000 are in the lease-up phase, which is in line with the trailing six-month average of 483,000 units but represents a substantial 15.9% increase from the figures of the previous year. Most of these units are expected to be finalized either by the end of 2023 or during the first half of 2024.
What does this mean for 2024?
Though short-term construction starts remained elevated through the first half of 2023, several findings from the third quarter suggest that new development activity is slowing. The near flat growth recorded in Q3 is a sharp departure from the growth the planned pipeline recorded post pandemic—another sign that development interest is slowing, according to Yardi.
Overall, Yardi Matrix anticipates an uptick in construction completions in the next two years. Yardi's construction start data reached its year-over-year peak in May 2023. Both planned and prospective pipelines plateaued in Q3.
"Our baseline forecast envisions new supply bottoming in 2026 at around 377,000 units, while the alternative downside forecast models new supply bottoming in 2026 at 335,000 units," writes Ben Bruckner, Senior Research Analyst, Yardi Matrix.
Review the latest Multifamily Supply Forecast here.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, industrial, office and self storage property types. Email matrix@yardi.com, call 480-663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 160 Apartment and Condominium Architecture Firms for 2023
Gensler, Humphreys and Partners, Solomon Cordwell Buenz, and AO top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest apartment building and condominium architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 40 Student Housing Construction Firms for 2023
Findorff, Juneau Construction, JE Dunn Construction, and Weitz Company top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 30 Student Housing Engineering Firms for 2023
Kimley-Horn, Wiss, Janney, Elstner Associates, KPFF Consulting Engineers, and Olsson head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 20, 2023
Top 90 Student Housing Architecture Firms for 2023
Niles Bolton Associates, Solomon Cordwell Buenz, BKV Group, and Humphreys and Partners Architects top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
MFPRO+ News | Dec 18, 2023
Berkeley, Calif., raises building height limits in downtown area
Facing a severe housing shortage, the City of Berkeley, Calif., increased the height limits on residential buildings to 12 stories in the area close to the University of California campus.
Sponsored | Multifamily Housing | Dec 13, 2023
Mind the Gap
Incorporating temporary expansion joints on larger construction projects can help avoid serious consequences. Here's why and how.
Giants 400 | Dec 12, 2023
Top 35 Military Facility Construction Firms for 2023
Hensel Phelps, DPR Construction, Walsh Group, and Whiting-Turner top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest military facility general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 12, 2023
Top 50 Military Facility Engineering Firms for 2023
Jacobs, Burns & McDonnell, WSP, and AECOM head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest military facility engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 12, 2023
Top 40 Military Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
Michael Baker International, HDR, Whitman, Requardt & Associates, and Stantec top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest military facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Codes and Standards | Dec 11, 2023
Washington state tries new approach to phase out fossil fuels in new construction
After pausing a heat pump mandate earlier this year after a federal court overturned Berkeley, Calif.’s ban on gas appliances in new buildings, Washington state enacted a new code provision that seems poised to achieve the same goal.
