The multifamily housing supply could increase by up to nearly 7% by the end of 2023, states the latest Multifamily Supply Forecast from Yardi Matrix.
The Q3 2023 supply forecast update has increased forecast completions 6.9% for 2023 and 6.5% for 2024. The near-term forecast was increased this month as the under-construction pipeline continues to expand, and 2023 construction starts to date have not exhibited any signs of a slowdown.
Yardi Matrix's Multifamily Supply Forecast
For multifamily markets tracked on or before January 2020, there are currently just over 1.1 million units under construction. Of these units, 429,626 are currently in lease-up, roughly in line with the trailing 12-month average of 421,000 units. Most of these units will complete in 2023 or the first half of 2024.
As of this report’s release, Yardi Matrix is tracking 688,420 under-construction units that are not in lease-up. This represents a 36.9% year-over-year increase and a 96.7% increase over pre-pandemic levels.
The longer-term supply forecast accounts for depressing completions in 2025 and 2026 relative to current levels, with a rebound taking hold in 2027. Forecast completions for 2026 have been reduced by 5% to 401,065, while forecast 2027 and 2028 completions have been reduced to 417,378 and 426,722 units, respectively.
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