McKinsey & Company, the international corporate consulting firm, has issued a new research study, “Modular construction: From projects to products.” Written by an international team, it discusses a wide range of building sectors, but its main focus is multifamily.
The authors claim that modular construction could claim $45 billion of the total $277 billion new-build multifamily market by 2030 in the U.S. and Europe at moderate penetration and save $6 billion a year in costs.
Assuming the U.S. represents at least half of the market (probably more like 60-70%), those would seem to be very attractive numbers for apartment, student housing, and senior living construction, where modular construction works best.
SEE ALSO: Almost everything you wanted to know about industrial construction
But I have some problems with the McKinsey findings. To start with, I wonder where they got the $277 billion figure for multifamily construction in the U.S. and Europe by 2030. That looks really high to me. It would be a godsend if the U.S. could be producing half of that, say, $130 billion or more of apartments and other forms of multifamily—we sure could use them. But with the U.S. producing at best $60-70 billion in multifamily construction, it’s hard to see a doubling of that rate of construction in the next decade.
The McKinsey numbers may also be weighted toward the rest of the world, less so toward the U.S. One of the charts I found most intriguing (page 22 of the report, if you’re keeping score) had to do with the current offsite share of housing by country, i.e., how much “factory-produced” housing construction is going on in various countries.
The global leader turns out to be the trifecta of Finland-Norway-Sweden, where 45% of housing construction is produced off site, followed by Japan (15%), Germany (10%), China (6%), and Australia and the U.K. (each 5%). The U.S.? Three percent.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the U.S. Modular, prefab, or “industrial construction” is starting to catch on, particularly in student housing and the low- to mid-rise apartment sector. One reason for this is the pervasive adoption of Revit and other 3D modeling tools, which make it relatively easy to transfer data from the designer’s desktop directly to the offsite factory.
Another reason why we’ll see more industrial construction in multifamily is the dire shortage of skilled labor. As the McKinsey experts note, shifting to offsite manufacture is cheaper—and “it may even attract new people into the workforce who do not wish to move from one construction site to another following projects.” Or who’d rather be in a nice cozy factory than freezing their butts on a job site in the middle of a Minnesota winter.
But don’t expect huge savings in initial costs. The most important benefit of offsite construction, when done right, is reliability—the assurance that a wall system or an entire room module can and will be delivered on time and to high level of specification.
Related Stories
BAS and Security | May 26, 2022
Can your intelligent building outsmart hackers?
ESD's security services studio leader Coleman Wolf offers tips, advice, and lessons for protecting real estate assets from cyberattacks.
Architects | Apr 26, 2022
Low-tech skills architects need to keep in a high-tech world
As architects continue to lean into learning and mastering the latest technologies, let us not forget the foundational, fundamental skills that are still expected by clients. RS&H National Design Director Philip Robbie explains.
AEC Tech | Apr 19, 2022
VDC maturity and the key to driving better, more predictable outcomes
While more stakeholders across the AEC value chain embrace the concept of virtual design and construction, what is driving the vastly different results that organizations achieve? The answer lies within an assessment of VDC maturity.
AEC Tech | Apr 13, 2022
Morphosis designs EV charging station for automaker Genesis
LA-based design and architecture firm Morphosis has partnered with automotive luxury brand Genesis to bring their signature brand and styling, attention-to-detail, and seamless customer experience to the design of Electric Vehicle Charging (EVC) Stations.
AEC Tech | Apr 13, 2022
A robot automates elevator installation
Schindler—which manufactures and installs elevators, escalators, and moving walkways—has created a robot called R.I.S.E. (robotic installation system for elevators) to help install lifts in high-rise buildings.
Hotel Facilities | Apr 12, 2022
A virtual hotel to open in the metaverse
A brand of affordable luxury hotels that launched in 2008, citizenM has announced it will purchase a digital land site in The Sandbox, a virtual game world owned by Animoca Brands.
Modular Building | Mar 31, 2022
Rick Murdock’s dream multifamily housing factory
Modular housing leader Rick Murdock had a vision: Why not use robotic systems to automate the production of affordable modular housing? Now that vision is a reality.
AEC Tech Innovation | Mar 9, 2022
Meet Emerge: WSP USA's new AEC tech incubator
Pooja Jain, WSP’s VP-Strategic Innovation, discusses the pilot programs her firm’s new incubator, Emerge, has initiated with four tech startup companies. Jain speaks with BD+C's John Caulfield about the four AEC tech firms to join Cohort 1 of the firm’s incubator.
AEC Tech | Feb 11, 2022
Trimble Dimensions+ 2022 Call for Speakers Now Open
Trimble has opened its Call for Speakers for the Trimble Dimensions+ 2022 User Conference, which will be held November 7-9 at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas.
Coronavirus | Jan 20, 2022
Advances and challenges in improving indoor air quality in commercial buildings
Michael Dreidger, CEO of IAQ tech startup Airsset speaks with BD+C's John Caulfield about how building owners and property managers can improve their buildings' air quality.