The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the third quarter of 2019 despite contracting levels of nonresidential investment, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nonresidential fixed investment declined at a 3% annual rate in the third quarter after declining at a 1% rate in the second quarter.
The annual rate for nonresidential fixed investment in structures, a component closely tied to construction, declined 15.3% in the third quarter. Investment in structures has now contracted in four of the previous five quarters, including an 11.1% decline in the second quarter of 2019.
“Today’s report reinforced a number of observations regarding the U.S. economy and the nation’s nonresidential construction sector,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “First, the economy is slowing. While consumer spending and government outlays remain elevated, gross private domestic investment continues to slip, this time by 1.5% on an annualized basis in the third quarter. While this is less than the 6.3% decline registered during the second quarter, the key takeaway is that the current economic expansion is narrowing, increasingly fueled by consumers and public agencies taking on additional debt.
“Second, certain segments of nonresidential construction continue to soften,” said Basu. “Recent data regarding nonresidential construction spending indicate weaker spending in categories such as office and lodging. This was reflected in today’s GDP report, which indicated that spending on structures contracted significantly during the third quarter. For the most part, nonresidential construction spending growth continues to be driven by public construction, including in categories such as water supply and public safety.
“The primary question now is whether the slowdown in economic activity will persist into 2020,” said Basu. “Many factors suggest it will, including a weakening global economy, a U.S. manufacturing sector that is arguably already in recession, vulnerability attributable to massive accumulations of public, corporate and household debt and the uncertain outcomes attached to ongoing trade negotiations. On the other hand, U.S. equity markets have continued to surge higher in the context of better-than-expected corporate earnings and ongoing accommodation by the Federal Reserve. Put it all together and the outlook for the U.S. economy has seldom been more uncertain, especially given next year’s elections.
Related Stories
Market Data | Nov 29, 2016
It’s not just traditional infrastructure that requires investment
A national survey finds strong support for essential community buildings.
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2016
Building America: The Merit Shop Scorecard
ABC releases state rankings on policies affecting construction industry.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 28, 2016
Axiometrics predicts apartment deliveries will peak by mid 2017
New York is projected to lead the nation next year, thanks to construction delays in 2016
Market Data | Nov 22, 2016
Construction activity will slow next year: JLL
Risk, labor, and technology are impacting what gets built.
Market Data | Nov 17, 2016
Architecture Billings Index rebounds after two down months
Decline in new design contracts suggests volatility in design activity to persist.
Market Data | Nov 11, 2016
Brand marketing: Why the B2B world needs to embrace consumers
The relevance of brand recognition has always been debatable in the B2B universe. With notable exceptions like BASF, few manufacturers or industry groups see value in generating top-of-mind awareness for their products and services with consumers.
Industry Research | Nov 8, 2016
Austin, Texas wins ‘Top City’ in the Emerging Trends in Real Estate outlook
Austin was followed on the list by Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas and Portland, Ore.
Market Data | Nov 2, 2016
Nonresidential construction spending down in September, but August data upwardly revised
The government revised the August nonresidential construction spending estimate from $686.6 billion to $696.6 billion.
Market Data | Oct 31, 2016
Nonresidential fixed investment expands again during solid third quarter
The acceleration in real GDP growth was driven by a combination of factors, including an upturn in exports, a smaller decrease in state and local government spending and an upturn in federal government spending, says ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
Market Data | Oct 28, 2016
U.S. construction solid and stable in Q3 of 2016; Presidential election seen as influence on industry for 2017
Rider Levett Bucknall’s Third Quarter 2016 USA Construction Cost Report puts the complete spectrum of construction sectors and markets in perspective as it assesses the current state of the industry.