The U.S. economy contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate during the first quarter of 2022. Investment in nonresidential structures declined at an annual rate of 0.9% during the quarter and has contracted nine of the past 10 quarters, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
“The economy’s woeful performance during 2022’s first quarter complicates matters,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Conventional wisdom says the economy has enough momentum to contend with the tighter monetary policy the Federal Reserve is pursuing to countervail inflation. Today’s data indicate that the economy is weaker than thought, which means the Federal Reserve will have a very difficult time curbing inflation without driving the economy into recession in late 2022 or 2023.
“That said, the economy should manage to generate some positive momentum during the next two to three quarters,” said Basu. “Consumer demand for goods and services remains strong. The omicron variant affected the economy during the first quarter and that does not appear to be the case during the second. Global supply chains have been adjusting to the dislocations caused by the Russian-Ukraine war. Many state and local governments are flush with cash and continue to plan for a period of elevated infrastructure outlays.
“There is one other bit of good news,” said Basu. “The weakness exhibited by the economy during the first quarter may persuade monetary policymakers to raise interest rates less aggressively. This is a matter of significance for nonresidential contractors, who have become less confident in recent months, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Indicator. Investment in structures continues to decline in America, in part due to weakness in office, lodging and shopping mall segments. Presumably, additional rapid increases in borrowing costs would further dampen new construction in these categories. It may be that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more gradually than they would have knowing that the U.S. economy is already rather fragile.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Sep 5, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increased 0.1% in July 2023
National nonresidential construction spending grew 0.1% in July, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.08 trillion and is up 16.5% year over year.
Giants 400 | Aug 31, 2023
Top 35 Engineering Architecture Firms for 2023
Jacobs, AECOM, Alfa Tech, Burns & McDonnell, and Ramboll top the rankings of the nation's largest engineering architecture (EA) firms for nonresidential buildings and multifamily buildings work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2023
Top 115 Architecture Engineering Firms for 2023
Stantec, HDR, Page, HOK, and Arcadis North America top the rankings of the nation's largest architecture engineering (AE) firms for nonresidential building and multifamily housing work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2023
2023 Giants 400 Report: Ranking the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms
A record 552 AEC firms submitted data for BD+C's 2023 Giants 400 Report. The final report includes 137 rankings across 25 building sectors and specialty categories.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2023
Top 175 Architecture Firms for 2023
Gensler, HKS, Perkins&Will, Corgan, and Perkins Eastman top the rankings of the nation's largest architecture firms for nonresidential building and multifamily housing work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Apartments | Aug 22, 2023
Key takeaways from RCLCO's 2023 apartment renter preferences study
Gregg Logan, Managing Director of real estate consulting firm RCLCO, reveals the highlights of RCLCO's new research study, “2023 Rental Consumer Preferences Report.” Logan speaks with BD+C's Robert Cassidy.
Market Data | Aug 18, 2023
Construction soldiers on, despite rising materials and labor costs
Quarterly analyses from Skanska, Mortenson, and Gordian show nonresidential building still subject to materials and labor volatility, and regional disparities.
Apartments | Aug 14, 2023
Yardi Matrix updates near-term multifamily supply forecast
The multifamily housing supply could increase by up to nearly 7% by the end of 2023, states the latest Multifamily Supply Forecast from Yardi Matrix.
Hotel Facilities | Aug 2, 2023
Top 5 markets for hotel construction
According to the United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report by Lodging Econometrics (LE) for Q2 2023, the five markets with the largest hotel construction pipelines are Dallas with a record-high 184 projects/21,501 rooms, Atlanta with 141 projects/17,993 rooms, Phoenix with 119 projects/16,107 rooms, Nashville with 116 projects/15,346 rooms, and Los Angeles with 112 projects/17,797 rooms.
Market Data | Aug 1, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increases slightly in June
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.1% in June, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Spending is up 18% over the past 12 months. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.07 trillion in June.