Immigration policy, declining birth rate could slow multifamily demand

Population growth caused by a steadily declining birthrate and immigration policies could be a long-term dampener on demand for multifamily properties, according to Yardi Matrix’s Multifamily National Report for February.

Market conditions are far from dire, but with population growth slowing sharply, multifamily operators may have to plan for slower demand, the report says. The U.S. population grew by 1.8 million between July 2024 and July 2025, which was the lowest annual rate since the pandemic and 0.2% below the annual growth rate this century. It was a significant decline from the previous 12 months, when the population grew by 3.2 million.

Last year, the national birthrate was the lowest on record at just 3.6 million, or 1.06% of the population. Another contributing factor to population decline was a 54% drop in international immigration, from 2.7 million in 2023-2024 to 1.3 million in 2024-2025. Immigration is expected to fall further due to enforcement and self-deporting. Oversupply, especially in the Sunbelt, was also cited in the report.

On a more positive note, lease renewals are strong and renewal rates are trending up. Core markets like San Francisco and Chicago have bounced back and Sunbelt markets still have long-term growth prospects.