Multifamily supply forecast revised upward for 2026

Yardi Matrix updated its Q1 2026 multifamily supply forecast after a projected slowdown in new construction in 2025 proved incorrect.

The under-construction pipeline declined more slowly than anticipated, ending the fourth quarter at about 950,968 units, a 1.6% drop from the previous quarter and a 17.3% decline compared with the March 2024 peak of 1.27 million units.

The slower decline reflects continued resilience in new construction starts, particularly over the past 24 months.

During the third quarter, multifamily construction starts totaled 98,920 units, bringing full-year 2025 starts to an estimated 322,061—about 3.4% above 2024 levels. Although Q4 data remains incomplete, national starts could exceed 450,000 units for 2025.

The 2026 forecast is now up 6.4% to 468,731 units. For 2027, forecasted completions are up 8.1% to 439,571 units. The 2028 forecast is up 8.9% to 447,505 units.

Strong economic activity is expected to support multifamily demand in 2026, with fiscal stimulus boosting incomes and employment. Slow existing home sales are expected to bolster rental growth.