Consumer confidence: No great expectations

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell by 3.2 percent between November and December of 2000, after declining by a cumulative 7.3 percent over the previous four months. With a December 2000 CCI reading of 128.3-where average confidence during 1985 equals 100-the composite CCI was 9.5 percent lower than during December 1999.

The CCI component for future expectations, defined as six months out, fell by a sharp 5.3 percent between November and December-17.3 percent lower than three months earlier.

Commercial, industrial & institutional (CII) construction spending (Billions of current dollars)

Spending in November 2000 Percent change from November 1999 Spending in Jan.-Nov. 2000 Percent change from Jan.-Nov. 1999 1999 total spending Annual Percent Change 1999 2000 2001
CII total
$26.84
13.9%
$279.85
11.5%
$273.47
3.6%
10.2%
3.7%
Commercial
11.36
7.6
120.74
9.9
119.65
8.1
9.0
2.2
Office
4.74
19.8
48.96
14.3
46.57
10.3
12.7
7.1
Retail
5.22
-1.3
56.55
8.0
57.14
6.6
8.8
-3.7
Hotel/motel
1.40
6.9
15.23
4.1
15.94
7.6
2.6
-2.4
Industrial
4.17
49.2
37.08
15.9
34.90
-13.8
13.7
5.5
Institutional
11.31
10.7
122.03
11.8
118.92
5.4
10.3
4.7
Health care
1.74
12.1
18.01
11.9
17.59
-0.6
11.7
2.2
Education
4.94
20.2
53.78
18.0
49.51
7.8
16.3
9.5
Other institutional
4.62
1.7
50.25
5.9
51.82
5.3
6.1
4.4
Multifamily
2.40
5.4
25.79
2.9
27.26
10.9
0.8
3.7

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; forecast: Cahners Economics