The global market for products and services related to achieving net zero energy in residential and commercial construction and renovation is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 44.5% between 2014 and 2035, and exceed $1.4 trillion in that last year, according to the latest estimates in a new 24-page report, titled Net Zero Energy Buildings, published by Navigant Research.
In North America alone, that market is projected to increase annually at a rate of 38.4% during that timeframe, reaching more than $127 billion in 2035.
Once confined mostly to single-family home and one-story office construction, net zero energy (ZNE) is penetrating a nonresidential sector that is placing greater emphasis on efficiency, renewable energy, and consumption. The Navigant report contends that the technology needed to achieve net zero energy is available for almost any building type.
Benjamin Freas, Navigant’s Principal Research Analyst in Washington, D.C., tells BD+C that the regulatory climate, both in North America and worldwide, is leaning in directions that favor ZNE construction practices. He points specifically to California’s Title 24, which went into effect on January 1 and sets minimum energy saving requirements for new buildings and renovations. By 2030, all new commercial construction in California must be ZNE, meaning that those buildings produce at least as much energy onsite as they consume.
Freas concedes that commercial ZNE so far is in the “pilot program phase” and is being being adopted “jurisdiction by jurisdiction, state by state.” But he’s convinced that the actions of “forward-thinking” states such as California, Massachusetts, and New York will ultimately result in regional and national code changes.
Freas also points to the Paris Climate agreement, which takes effect on November 4, 2017, as a possible turning point for ZNE construction. The pact, with 197 signatories, requires governments to present national plans to reduce emissions to limit global temperature rise to well below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. (While President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to pull the U.S. out of that accord, there is less certainty about what impact his administration will have on America’s push toward greater energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions.)
Another factor in Navigant’s projections is the advocacy of groups like U.S. Green Building Council and the New Buildings Institute that are pressing developers and their AEC partners to entertain ZNE as an option in their design and construction plans.
Freas observes that ZNE is starting to seep into AEC continuing education programming. However, he admits that educating the industry about the benefits of ZNE remains “a challenge,” in part because the costs related to making buildings net zero energy are “currently not acceptable to most building owners.”
That being said, Navigant’s research paints a picture of a global market in which ZNE is inevitable and, eventually, ubiquitous.
Glazing, walls and roofs are the biggest potential ZNE areas. Navigant estimates that the value of ZNE products and services for wall and roof construction and renovation will expand to $366.3 billion in 2035, from a mere $134.1 million in 2014. ZNE-related glazing products and services will increase to $369.9 billion from $132.4 million over that same period.
Another big gainer could be ZNE HVAC products and services, which are expected to grow at an annualized rate of 45.8%, to $172.6 billion in 2035.
All told, the global ZNE products and services market is projected to hit $1.436 trillion in 2035, compared to only $629.3 million in 2014.
The North American ZNE market will reach $127.1 billion in 2035, nearly 1,000 times larger than the 137.4 million market at 2014. The walls and roofs sector is expected to increase at an annual rate of 39.6% to $32.3 billion; and ZNE products and services for glazing should increase annually by 39.8% to $32.9 billion.
Related Stories
Industrial Facilities | Jun 20, 2023
A new study presses for measuring embodied carbon in industrial buildings
The embodied carbon (EC) intensity in core and shell industrial buildings in the U.S. averages 23.0 kilograms per sf, according to a recent analysis of 26 whole building life-cycle assessments. That means a 300,000-sf warehouse would emit 6,890 megatons of carbon over its lifespan, or the equivalent of the carbon emitted by 1,530 gas-powered cars driven for one year. Those sobering estimates come from a new benchmark study, “Embodied Carbon U.S. Industrial Real Estate.”
Mechanical Systems | Jun 16, 2023
Cogeneration: An efficient, reliable, sustainable alternative to traditional power generation
Cogeneration is more efficient than traditional power generation, reduces carbon emissions, has high returns on the initial investment, improves reliability, and offers a platform for additional renewable resources and energy storage for a facility. But what is cogeneration? And is it suitable for all facilities?
Multifamily Housing | Jun 15, 2023
Alliance of Pittsburgh building owners slashes carbon emissions by 45%
The Pittsburgh 2030 District, an alliance of property owners in the Pittsburgh area, says that it has reduced carbon emissions by 44.8% below baseline. Begun in 2012 under the guidance of the Green Building Alliance (GBA), the Pittsburgh 2030 District encompasses more than 86 million sf of space within 556 buildings.
Resiliency | Jun 14, 2023
HUD offers $4.8 billion in funding for green and resilient building retrofit projects
The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) recently released guidelines for its Green and Resilient Retrofit Program (GRRP) that has $4.8 billion for funding green projects.
Codes and Standards | Jun 6, 2023
California’s new power grid modernization plan furthers ambitious climate goals
California’s new $7.3 billion grid modernization plan is a crucial step in furthering its ambitious climate goals. The board of governors for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the state’s grid operator, recently approved a strategy to build thousands of miles of new high-voltage transmission lines.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 6, 2023
Minnesota expected to adopt building code that would cut energy use by 80%
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is expected to soon sign a bill that would change the state’s commercial building code so that new structures would use 80% less energy when compared to a 2004 baseline standard. The legislation aims for full implementation of the new code by 2036.
K-12 Schools | May 25, 2023
From net zero to net positive in K-12 schools
Perkins Eastman’s pursuit of healthy, net positive schools goes beyond environmental health; it targets all who work, teach, and learn inside them.
Mass Timber | May 23, 2023
Luxury farm resort uses CLT framing and geothermal system to boost sustainability
Construction was recently completed on a 325-acre luxury farm resort in Franklin, Tenn., that is dedicated to agricultural innovation and sustainable, productive land use. With sustainability a key goal, The Inn and Spa at Southall was built with cross-laminated and heavy timber, and a geothermal variant refrigerant flow (VRF) heating and cooling system.
Office Buildings | May 15, 2023
Sixteen-story office tower will use 40% less energy than an average NYC office building
This month marks the completion of a new 16-story office tower that is being promoted as New York City’s most sustainable office structure. That boast is backed by an innovative HVAC system that features geothermal wells, dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) units, radiant heating and cooling, and a sophisticated control system to ensure that the elements work optimally together.
Headquarters | May 9, 2023
New Wells Fargo development in Texas will be bank’s first net-positive campus
A new Wells Fargo development in the Dallas metroplex will be the national bank’s first net-positive campus, expected to generate more energy than it uses. The 850,000-sf project on 22 acres will generate power from solar panels and provide electric vehicle charging stations.