Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4% through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019. However, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. See what each panelist forecasts for 2019 below, and using this interactive chart.
“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”
OVERALL CONSENSUS
DODGE DATA & ANALYTCS
IHS ECONOMICS
MOODY'S ECONOMY.COM
FMI
CONSTRUCTCONNECT
ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS (ABC)
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES
MARKSTEIN ADVISORS
Notes:
• FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.
• The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
• There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
• Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
• All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.
Related Stories
Contractors | Apr 19, 2023
Rising labor, material prices cost subcontractors $97 billion in unplanned expenses
Subcontractors continue to bear the brunt of rising input costs for materials and labor, according to a survey of nearly 900 commercial construction professionals.
Data Centers | Apr 14, 2023
JLL's data center outlook: Cloud computing, AI driving exponential growth for data center industry
According to JLL’s new Global Data Center Outlook, the mass adoption of cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) is driving exponential growth for the data center industry, with hyperscale and edge computing leading investor demand.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 13, 2023
Healthcare construction costs for 2023
Data from Gordian breaks down the average cost per square foot for a three-story hospital across 10 U.S. cities.
Higher Education | Apr 13, 2023
Higher education construction costs for 2023
Fresh data from Gordian breaks down the average cost per square foot for a two-story college classroom building across 10 U.S. cities.
Market Data | Apr 13, 2023
Construction input prices down year-over-year for first time since August 2020
Construction input prices increased 0.2% in March, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data released today. Nonresidential construction input prices rose 0.4% for the month.
Market Data | Apr 11, 2023
Construction crane count reaches all-time high in Q1 2023
Toronto, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Denver top the list of U.S/Canadian cities with the greatest number of fixed cranes on construction sites, according to Rider Levett Bucknall's RLB Crane Index for North America for Q1 2023.
Contractors | Apr 11, 2023
The average U.S. contractor has 8.7 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of March 2023
Associated Builders and Contractors reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator declined to 8.7 months in March, according to an ABC member survey conducted March 20 to April 3. The reading is 0.4 months higher than in March 2022.
Market Data | Apr 6, 2023
JLL’s 2023 Construction Outlook foresees growth tempered by cost increases
The easing of supply chain snags for some product categories, and the dispensing with global COVID measures, have returned the North American construction sector to a sense of normal. However, that return is proving to be complicated, with the construction industry remaining exceptionally busy at a time when labor and materials cost inflation continues to put pricing pressure on projects, leading to caution in anticipation of a possible downturn. That’s the prognosis of JLL’s just-released 2023 U.S. and Canada Construction Outlook.
Market Data | Apr 4, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending up 0.4% in February 2023
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.4% in February, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $982.2 billion for the month, up 16.8% from the previous year.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023
Average size of new apartments dropped sharply in 2022
The average size of new apartments in 2022 dropped sharply in 2022, as tracked by RentCafe. Across the U.S., the average new apartment size was 887 sf, down 30 sf from 2021, which was the largest year-over-year decrease.
