Despite a weak global economy, the industry's solid economic recovery in 2015 should continue in 2016, led by strong consumer spending, according to the 2016 construction industry forecast from the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC).
The group forecasts growth in nonresidential construction spending of 7.4% next year, along with growth in employment and backlog.
"The mid-phase of the recovery is typically the lengthiest part and ultimately gives way to the late phase, when the economy overheats,” ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu said. "Already, signs of overheating are evident, particularly with respect to emerging skills shortages in key industry categories such as trucking and construction."
Basu said that average hourly earnings across all industries are up only 2% in the past year, below the Federal Reserve's goal of 3.5%. Purchase prices in real estate and technology segments are rocketing higher and capitalization rates remain unusually low.
According to the most recent ABC Construction Confidence Index, overall contractor confidence has increased with respect to both sales (67.3 to 69.4) and profit margins (61 to 62.9). While the pace of hiring is not expected to increase rapidly during the next six months, largely because of the lack of suitably trained skilled personnel, the rate of new hires will continue at a steady pace.
ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator also signals strong demand. According to the latest survey, average contractor backlog stood at 8.5 months by mid-year 2015, with backlog surging in the western United States and the heavy industrial category.
Basu's full forecast is available in the December edition of ABC's Construction Executive magazine, along with the regional outlook for commercial and industrial construction by economist Bernard Markstein, PhD. Free subscriptions are available to construction industry professionals.
Related Stories
Contractors | Oct 19, 2023
Crane Index indicates slowing private-sector construction
Private-sector construction in major North American cities is slowing, according to the latest RLB Crane Index. The number of tower cranes in use declined 10% since the first quarter of 2023. The index, compiled by consulting firm Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB), found that only two of 14 cities—Boston and Toronto—saw increased crane counts.
Market Data | Oct 2, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending rises 0.4% in August 2023, led by manufacturing and public works sectors
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.4% in August, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.09 trillion.
Giants 400 | Sep 28, 2023
Top 100 University Building Construction Firms for 2023
Turner Construction, Whiting-Turner Contracting Co., STO Building Group, Suffolk Construction, and Skanska USA top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest university sector contractors and construction management firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue for all university/college-related buildings except student residence halls, sports/recreation facilities, laboratories, S+T-related buildings, parking facilities, and performing arts centers (revenue for those buildings are reported in their respective Giants 400 ranking).
Construction Costs | Sep 28, 2023
U.S. construction market moves toward building material price stabilization
The newly released Quarterly Construction Cost Insights Report for Q3 2023 from Gordian reveals material costs remain high compared to prior years, but there is a move towards price stabilization for building and construction materials after years of significant fluctuations. In this report, top industry experts from Gordian, as well as from Gilbane, McCarthy Building Companies, and DPR Construction weigh in on the overall trends seen for construction material costs, and offer innovative solutions to navigate this terrain.
Data Centers | Sep 21, 2023
North American data center construction rises 25% to record high in first half of 2023, driven by growth of artificial intelligence
CBRE’s latest North American Data Center Trends Report found there is 2,287.6 megawatts (MW) of data center supply currently under construction in primary markets, reaching a new all-time high with more than 70% already preleased.
Contractors | Sep 12, 2023
The average U.S. contractor has 9.2 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of August 2023
Associated Builders and Contractors' Construction Backlog Indicator declined to 9.2 months in August, down 0.1 month, according to an ABC member survey conducted from Aug. 21 to Sept. 6. The reading is 0.5 months above the August 2022 level.
Contractors | Sep 11, 2023
Construction industry skills shortage is contributing to project delays
Relatively few candidates looking for work in the construction industry have the necessary skills to do the job well, according to a survey of construction industry managers by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) and Autodesk.
Market Data | Sep 6, 2023
Far slower construction activity forecast in JLL’s Midyear update
The good news is that market data indicate total construction costs are leveling off.
Giants 400 | Sep 5, 2023
Top 80 Construction Management Firms for 2023
Alfa Tech, CBRE Group, Skyline Construction, Hill International, and JLL top the rankings of the nation's largest construction management (as agent) and program/project management firms for nonresidential buildings and multifamily housing work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Sep 5, 2023
Top 150 Contractors for 2023
Turner Construction, STO Building Group, DPR Construction, Whiting-Turner Contracting Co., and Clark Group head the ranking of the nation's largest general contractors, CM at risk firms, and design-builders for nonresidential buildings and multifamily buildings work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
