Following modest increases in construction spending for nonresidential buildings in 2019, economists from eight leading industry organizations forecast slight growth in 2020 and 2021—1.5% and 0.9%, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast panel.
Public safety, education, healthcare, and office are the bright spots in a market that is entering growth-slowdown mode. However, no downturn is projected by the economists.
The public safety sector is expected to grow 7.2% in 2020, followed by education (3.9%), healthcare (3.4%), and office (3.0%). Four sectors—hotels, religious facilities, amusement/recreation, and retail—will take a step back in construction spending in 2020, according to the report.
More from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast:
Construction spending last year was surprisingly weak, but current estimates suggest the industry had a modest increase in 2019. Retail construction activity was expected to underperform in 2019 but did not see the double-digit percentage declines that were expected. The AIA’s Consensus Construction forecast panel expects similar conditions this year and next.
“The broader economy is expected to continue to see slower growth this year, but the number of potential trouble spots seems to be diminishing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Revenue trends at architecture firms saw an uptick in the fourth quarter last year, which suggests construction spending will continue to see growth in the coming quarters.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 14, 2016
Transwestern: Market fundamentals and global stimulus driving economic growth
A new report from commercial real estate firm Transwestern indicates steady progress for the U.S. economy. Consistent job gains, wage growth, and consumer spending have offset declining corporate profits, and global stimulus plans appear to be effective.
Market Data | Jun 7, 2016
Global construction disputes took longer to resolve in 2015
The good news: the length and value of disputes in the U.S. fell last year, according to latest Arcadis report.
Market Data | Jun 3, 2016
JLL report: Retail renovation drives construction growth in 2016
Retail construction projects were up nearly 25% year-over-year, and the industrial and office construction sectors fared well, too. Economic uncertainty looms over everything, however.
Market Data | Jun 2, 2016
ABC: Nonresidential construction spending down in April
Lower building material prices, a sluggish U.S. economy, and hesitation among private developers all factor into the 2.1% drop.
Market Data | May 20, 2016
Report: Urban area population growth slows
Older Millennials are looking to buy homes and move away to more affordable suburbs and exurbs.
Market Data | May 17, 2016
Modest growth for AIA’s Architecture Billings Index in April
The American Institute of Architects reported the April ABI score was 50.6, down from the mark of 51.9 in the previous month. This score still reflects an increase in design services.
Market Data | Apr 29, 2016
ABC: Quarterly GDP growth slowest in two years
Bureau of Economic Analysis data indicates that the U.S. output is barely growing and that nonresidential investment is down.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2016
AIA: Architecture Billings Index ends first quarter on upswing
The multi-family residential sector fared the best. The Midwest was the only U.S. region that didn't see an increase in billings.
Building Technology | Apr 11, 2016
A nascent commercial wireless sensor market is poised to ascend in the next decade
Europe and Asia will propel that growth, according to a new report from Navigant.
Industry Research | Apr 7, 2016
CBRE provides latest insight into healthcare real estate investors’ strategies
Survey respondents are targeting smaller acquisitions, at a time when market cap rates are narrowing for different product types.
