Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu, American Institute of Architects (AIA) Chief Economist Kermit Baker and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist Robert Dietz predicted continued growth for the construction industry in 2017 during a joint economic forecast this week (download the PDF slidedeck; watch the archived presentation).
Each economist discussed leading, present, and future indicators for sector performance, including ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI), AIA’s latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and Construction Consensus Forecast, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
The economists’ comments can be read below.
Anirban Basu, ABC Chief Economist: "Nonresidential construction spending growth will continue into the next year with an estimated increase in the range of 3 to 4 percent. Growth will continue to be led by privately financed projects, with commercial construction continuing to lead the way. Energy-related construction will become less of a drag in 2017, while public spending will continue to be lackluster."
Robert Dietz, NAHB Chief Economist: "Our forecast shows single-family production expanding by more than 10 percent in 2016, and the robust multifamily sector leveling off. Historically low mortgage interest rates and favorable demographics should keep the housing market moving forward at a gradual pace, but residential construction growth will be constrained by shortages of labor and lots and rising regulatory costs."
Kermit Baker, AIA Chief Economist: "Revenue at architecture firms continues to grow, so prospects for the construction industry remain solid over the next 12 to 18 months. Given current demographic trends, the single-family residential and the institutional building sectors have the greatest potential for further expansion at present."
Related Stories
Market Data | Apr 4, 2016
ABC: Nonresidential spending slip in February no cause for alarm
Spending in the nonresidential sector totaled $690.3 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis in February. The figure is a step back but still significantly higher than one year ago.
Market Data | Mar 30, 2016
10 trends for commercial real estate: JLL report
The report looks at global threats and opportunities, and how CRE firms are managing their expectations for growth.
Market Data | Mar 23, 2016
AIA: Modest expansion for Architecture Billings Index
Business conditions softening most in Midwest in recent months.
Retail Centers | Mar 16, 2016
Food and technology will help tomorrow’s malls survive, says CallisonRTKL
CallisonRTKL foresees future retail centers as hubs with live/work/play components.
Market Data | Mar 6, 2016
Real estate execs measure success by how well they manage ‘talent,’ costs, and growth
A new CBRE survey finds more companies leaning toward “smarter” workspaces.
Market Data | Mar 1, 2016
ABC: Nonresidential spending regains momentum in January
Nonresidential construction spending expanded 2.5% on a monthly basis and 12.3% on a yearly basis, totaling $701.9 billion. Spending increased in January in 10 of 16 nonresidential construction sectors.
Market Data | Mar 1, 2016
Leopardo releases 2016 Construction Economics Report
This year’s report shows that spending in 2015 reached the highest level since the Great Recession. Total spending on U.S. construction grew 10.5% to $1.1 trillion, the largest year-over-year gain since 2007.
Market Data | Feb 26, 2016
JLL upbeat about construction through 2016
Its latest report cautions about ongoing cost increases related to finding skilled laborers.
Market Data | Feb 17, 2016
AIA reports slight contraction in Architecture Billings Index
Multifamily residential sector improving after sluggish 2015.
Market Data | Feb 11, 2016
AIA: Continued growth expected in nonresidential construction
The American Institute of Architects’ semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates a growth of 8% in construction spending in 2016, and 6.7% the following year.
