Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu predicts stability for the construction industry’s economy and expanding nonresidential construction spending in 2018. While construction project backlog and contractor confidence remain high heading into the new year, Basu warns there are risks to the 2018 outlook as a number of potential cost increases could come into play.
“With wage pressures building, healthcare costs surging and fuel prices edging higher, inflation is becoming more apparent,” Basu said. “That could translate into some meaningful interest rate increases in 2018, which all things being equal is not good for construction spending. The stock market’s performance has been simply brilliant. But what goes up can go down.”
Basu added that asset prices might head in a different direction in 2018, including commercial real estate prices. Segments like hotels, office buildings and apartments have helped to fuel construction spending in recent years. If the value of properties begins to stagnate or worse, construction spending momentum will eventually wind down. The impact of this may not be felt in 2018, however, but in out years, Basu said.
“For now, there is plentiful momentum,” said Basu. “A recent reading of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators suggests that the U.S. economy will enter 2018 with substantial momentum. Corporate earnings remain healthy. Global growth is accelerating. Consumers are upbeat. Tax cuts could fuel faster business spending. All of this suggests that the construction recovery that began in earnest in 2011 may have a few more birthdays ahead.”
Read Basu’s full 2018 construction economic forecast in Construction Executive magazine. You can also listen to Basu talk about his forecast in a recent webinar.
Visit ABC Construction Economics for the Construction Backlog Indicator, Construction Confidence Index and state unemployment reports, plus analysis of spending, employment, GDP and the Producer Price Index.
Related Stories
Hotel Facilities | Jul 28, 2022
As travel returns, U.S. hotel construction pipeline growth follows
According to the recently released United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), the total U.S. construction pipeline stands at 5,220 projects/621,268 rooms at the close of 2022’s second quarter, up 9% Year-Over-Year (YOY) by projects and 4% YOY by rooms.
Codes and Standards | Jul 22, 2022
Hurricane-resistant construction may be greatly undervalued
New research led by an MIT graduate student at the school’s Concrete Sustainability Hub suggests that the value of buildings constructed to resist wind damage in hurricanes may be significantly underestimated.
Market Data | Jul 21, 2022
Architecture Billings Index continues to stabilize but remains healthy
Architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in June, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Market Data | Jul 21, 2022
Despite deteriorating economic conditions, nonresidential construction spending projected to increase through 2023
Construction spending on buildings is projected to increase just over nine percent this year and another six percent in 2023, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Building Team | Jul 18, 2022
Understanding the growing design-build market
FMI’s new analysis of the design-build market forecast for the next fives years shows that this delivery method will continue to grow, despite challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Market Data | Jul 1, 2022
Nonresidential construction spending slightly dips in May, says ABC
National nonresidential construction spending was down by 0.6% in May, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Market Data | Jun 30, 2022
Yardi Matrix releases new national rent growth forecast
Rents in most American cities continue to rise slightly each month, but are not duplicating the rapid escalation rates exhibited in 2021.
Market Data | Jun 22, 2022
Architecture Billings Index slows but remains strong
Architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in May, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Building Team | Jun 17, 2022
Data analytics in design and construction: from confusion to clarity and the data-driven future
Data helps virtual design and construction (VDC) teams predict project risks and navigate change, which is especially vital in today’s fluctuating construction environment.
Market Data | Jun 15, 2022
ABC’s construction backlog rises in May; contractor confidence falters
Associated Builders and Contractors reports today that its Construction Backlog Indicator increased to nine months in May from 8.8 months in April, according to an ABC member survey conducted May 17 to June 3. The reading is up one month from May 2021.
