Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Laboratories | May 24, 2024
The Department of Energy breaks ground on the Princeton Plasma Innovation Center
In Princeton, N.J., the U.S. Department of Energy’s Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) has broken ground on the Princeton Plasma Innovation Center (PPIC), a state-of-the-art office and laboratory building. Designed and constructed by SmithGroup, the $109.7 million facility will provide space for research supporting PPPL’s expanded mission into microelectronics, quantum sensors and devices, and sustainability sciences.
MFPRO+ News | May 24, 2024
Austin, Texas, outlaws windowless bedrooms
Austin, Texas will no longer allow developers to build windowless bedrooms. For at least two decades, the city had permitted developers to build thousands of windowless bedrooms.
Resiliency | May 24, 2024
As temperatures underground rise, so do risks to commercial buildings
Heat created by underground structures is increasing the risk of damage to buildings, recent studies have found. Basements, train tunnels, sewers, and other underground systems are making the ground around them warmer, which causes soil, sand, clay and silt to shift, settle, contract, and expand.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | May 23, 2024
The Cincinnati Open will undergo a campus-wide renovation ahead of the expanded 2025 tournament
One of the longest-running tennis tournaments in the country, the Cincinnati Open will add a 2,000-seat stadium, new courts and player center, and more greenspace to create a park-like atmosphere.
Mass Timber | May 22, 2024
3 mass timber architecture innovations
As mass timber construction evolves from the first decade of projects, we're finding an increasing variety of mass timber solutions. Here are three primary examples.
MFPRO+ News | May 21, 2024
Massachusetts governor launches advocacy group to push for more housing
Massachusetts’ Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll have taken the unusual step of setting up a nonprofit to advocate for pro-housing efforts at the local level. One Commonwealth Inc., will work to provide political and financial support for local housing initiatives, a key pillar of the governor’s agenda.
Building Tech | May 21, 2024
In a world first, load-bearing concrete walls built with a 3D printer
A Germany-based construction engineering company says it has constructed the world’s first load-bearing concrete walls built with a 3D printer. Züblin built a new warehouse from a single 3D print for Strabag Baumaschinentechnik International in Stuttgart, Germany using a Putzmeister 3D printer.
MFPRO+ News | May 21, 2024
Baker Barrios Architects announces new leadership roles for multifamily, healthcare design
Baker Barrios Architects announced two new additions to its leadership: Chris Powers, RA, AIA, NCARB, EDAC, as Associate Principal and Director (Healthcare); and Mark Kluemper, AIA, NCARB, as Associate Principal and Technical Director (Multifamily).
MFPRO+ News | May 20, 2024
Florida condo market roiled by structural safety standards law
A Florida law enacted after the Surfside condo tower collapse is causing turmoil in the condominium market. The law, which requires buildings to meet certain structural safety standards, is forcing condo associations to assess hefty fees to make repairs on older properties. In some cases, the cost per unit runs into six figures.
Office Buildings | May 20, 2024
10 spaces that are no longer optional to create a great workplace
Amenities are no longer optional. The new role of the office is not only a place to get work done, but to provide a mix of work experiences for employees.
