Spending on nonresidential buildings will see a modest 4% increase in 2024, after increasing by more than 20% last year according to The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast.
The pace will slow to just over 1% growth in 2025, a marked difference from the strong performance in 2023. Spending on commercial facilities will be flat this year and next, manufacturing construction will increase almost 10% this year before stabilizing in 2025, and institutional construction will see mid-single-digit gains this year and next.
The Consensus Construction Forecast panelists, a group comprised of the leading construction forecasters from across the country, found there are many factors fueling the projected slowdown:
- Tighter credit conditions continue to put pressure on many regional banks that account for a sizeable share of construction lending.
- Higher construction input costs due to inflation in materials costs and labor in recent years.
- Declines in commercial property values as weak demand continues in many sectors.
- Structural changes in demand, disrupting notoriously cyclical construction industry.
“There are several economic headwinds behind the projected slowdown,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “We already started to see construction starts either slow dramatically or turn negative in virtually all construction sectors in the latter part of 2023 and the weaker conditions are expected to stay into 2025.”
Related Stories
MFPRO+ News | Dec 11, 2023
U.S. poorly prepared to house growing number of older adults
The U.S. is ill-prepared to provide adequate housing for the growing ranks of older people, according to a report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Over the next decade, the U.S. population older than 75 will increase by 45%, growing from 17 million to nearly 25 million, with many expected to struggle financially.
Industry Research | Dec 9, 2023
Two new reports provide guidance for choosing healthier building products
The authors, Perkins&Will and the Healthy Building Network, home in on drywall, flooring, and insulation.The authors, Perkins&Will and the Healthy Building Network, home in on drywall, flooring, and insulation.
Student Housing | Dec 5, 2023
October had fastest start ever for student housing preleasing
The student housing market for the upcoming 2024-2025 leasing season has started sooner and faster than ever.
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2023
Migration trends find top 10 states Americans are moving to
In the StorageCafe analysis of the latest migration trends, each U.S. state was looked at to see the moving patterns of people in the last few years. These are the top 10 states that people are moving to.
Market Data | Nov 27, 2023
Number of employees returning to the office varies significantly by city
While the return-to-the-office trend is felt across the country, the percentage of employees moving back to their offices varies significantly according to geography, according to Eptura’s Q3 Workplace Index.
MFPRO+ News | Nov 21, 2023
Renters value amenities that support a mobile, connected lifestyle
Multifamily renters prioritize features and amenities that reflect a mobile, connected lifestyle, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and Grace Hill 2024 Renter Preferences Survey.
Industry Research | Nov 17, 2023
Air conditioning amenity sees largest growth in Pacific Northwest region
The 2024 Renter Preferences Survey Report sheds light on the demographics, lifestyle, connectivity needs, and more for the renters of today. At the top of this list—the feature that respondents are “interested in” or “won't rent without”—is air conditioning.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 9, 2023
Multifamily project completions forecast to slow starting 2026
Yardi Matrix has released its Q4 2023 Multifamily Supply Forecast, emphasizing a short-term spike and plateau of new construction.
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Oct 27, 2023
Download the 2023 Multifamily Annual Report
Welcome to Building Design+Construction and Multifamily Pro+’s first Multifamily Annual Report. This 76-page special report is our first-ever “state of the state” update on the $110 billion multifamily housing construction sector.
Market Data | Oct 23, 2023
New data finds that the majority of renters are cost-burdened
The most recent data derived from the 2022 Census American Community Survey reveals that the proportion of American renters facing housing cost burdens has reached its highest point since 2012, undoing the progress made in the ten years leading up to the pandemic.
