They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 18, 2024
A modular construction solution to the mental healthcare crisis
Maria Ionescu, Senior Medical Planner, Stantec, shares a tested solution for the overburdened emergency department: Modular hub-and-spoke design.
Codes and Standards | Mar 18, 2024
New urban stormwater policies treat rainwater as a resource
U.S. cities are revamping how they handle stormwater to reduce flooding and capture rainfall and recharge aquifers. New policies reflect a change in mindset from treating stormwater as a nuisance to be quickly diverted away to capturing it as a resource.
Plumbing | Mar 18, 2024
EPA to revise criteria for WaterSense faucets and faucet accessories
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to revise its criteria for faucets and faucet accessories to earn the WaterSense label. The specification launched in 2007; since then, most faucets now sold in the U.S. meet or exceed the current WaterSense maximum flow rate of 1.5 gallons per minute (gpm).
MFPRO+ New Projects | Mar 18, 2024
Luxury apartments in New York restore and renovate a century-old residential building
COOKFOX Architects has completed a luxury apartment building at 378 West End Avenue in New York City. The project restored and renovated the original residence built in 1915, while extending a new structure east on West 78th Street.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 18, 2024
YWCA building in Boston’s Back Bay converted into 210 affordable rental apartments
Renovation of YWCA at 140 Clarendon Street will serve 111 previously unhoused families and individuals.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 17, 2024
5 criteria to optimize medical office design
Healthcare designers need to consider privacy, separate areas for practitioners, natural light, outdoor spaces, and thoughtful selection of materials for medical office buildings.
Construction Costs | Mar 15, 2024
Retail center construction costs for 2024
Data from Gordian shows the most recent costs per square foot for restaurants, social clubs, one-story department stores, retail stores and movie theaters in select cities.
Architects | Mar 15, 2024
4 ways to streamline your architectural practice
Vessel Architecture's Lindsay Straatmann, AIA, highlights four habits that have helped her discover the key to mastering efficiency as an architect.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 15, 2024
First comprehensive cancer hospital in Dubai to host specialized multidisciplinary care
Stantec was selected to lead the design team for the Hamdan Bin Rashid Cancer Hospital, Dubai’s first integrated, comprehensive cancer hospital. Named in honor of the late Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the hospital is scheduled to open to patients in 2026.
Codes and Standards | Mar 15, 2024
Technical brief addresses the impact of construction-generated moisture on commercial roofing systems
A new technical brief from SPRI, the trade association representing the manufacturers of single-ply roofing systems and related component materials, addresses construction-generated moisture and its impact on commercial roofing systems.