ConstructConnect announced today the release of its Q3 2017 Forecast Quarterly Report. The U.S. grand total construction starts growth projection for 2017 over 2016 in ConstructConnect’s Q3 report has been revised down slightly to +4.5% from +4.8%. 2018 remains about the same at +5.9% year over year (y/y). Earlier, it had been estimated at +6.0%.
“The outlook for U.S. construction starts, as calculated by ConstructConnect, has diminished slightly in the short term,” said to Chief Economist Alex Carrick. “Prospects for some private sector project initiations (e.g., in retail) have stalled, while high hopes for an early launch of a much-needed super-infrastructure program, to be sponsored, promoted and perhaps largely financed by the new administration in Washington, have been deflated.”
The forecast which combines ConstructConnect's proprietary data with macroeconomic factors and Oxford Economics econometric expertise, shows the type-of-structure sub-categories among non-residential building starts that will have banner years in 2017:
- Hotels/motels (+38.2%)
- Warehouses (+16.3%)
- Sports stadiums (+47.3%)
- Courthouses (+110.0%)
The 2017 forecast for non-residential building starts was adjusted to -0.8% y/y, versus a flat (0.0%) performance that was expected in Q2’s forecast report. According to the forecast, non-residential building starts in 2018 will rebound to +3.3%, with private office buildings and industrial/manufacturing doing better with less downward drag being exerted by retail and medical projects. The boom in hotel/motel work will begin to lose steam.
Based on a heightened record of ‘actual’ starts through the first half of this year (+25.2%), civil/engineering starts in 2017 were revised upwards to +16.5% y/y from +8.9% in Q2’s report. 2018 growth in this category has also been raised, to +7.4% (from +5.8%).
The forecast includes a few notable high points in the 2017 y/y engineering sub-categories:
- Airports (+38.0%)
- Roads (+14.0%)
- Bridges (+31.0%)
- Power/oil and gas (+30.8%)
The report states among major sub-sectors, residential construction’s 2017 y/y increase has been scaled down to +4.8% from +8.1%. The robust multi-family market of the last several years has been pulling back of late, as rental rates in many regions soared. Single-family starts also stalled, despite a need for substantial growth activity, since they declined so horrendously in the Great Recession. Also, new family formations, specifically among millennials, point to a tremendous potential that for the moment is not being realized.
Related Stories
AEC Innovators | Apr 15, 2024
3 ways the most innovative companies work differently
Gensler’s pre-pandemic workplace research reinforced that great workplace design drives creativity and innovation. Using six performance indicators, we're able to view workers’ perceptions of the quality of innovation, creativity, and leadership in an employee’s organization.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 12, 2024
Greystar becomes top apartment owner, manager, and developer in 2024
One firm set records for this year’s National Multifamily Housing Council Top 50 roundup of multifamily firms. Greystar now sits at number one in the NMHC’s lists for top apartment owner, manager, and developer in 2024.
K-12 Schools | Apr 10, 2024
Surprise, surprise: Students excel in modernized K-12 school buildings
Too many of the nation’s school districts are having to make it work with less-than-ideal educational facilities. But at what cost to student performance and staff satisfaction?
Multifamily Housing | Apr 9, 2024
March reports record gains in multifamily rent growth in 20 months
Asking rents for multifamily units increased $8 during the month to $1,721; year-over-year growth grew 30 basis points to 0.9 percent—a normal seasonal growth pattern according to Yardi Matrix.
Retail Centers | Apr 4, 2024
Retail design trends: Consumers are looking for wellness in where they shop
Consumers are making lifestyle choices with wellness in mind, which ignites in them a feeling of purpose and a sense of motivation. That’s the conclusion that the architecture and design firm MG2 draws from a survey of 1,182 U.S. adult consumers the firm conducted last December about retail design and what consumers want in healthier shopping experiences.
Industry Research | Apr 4, 2024
Expenses per multifamily unit reach $8,950 nationally
Overall expenses per multifamily unit rose to $8,950, a 7.1% increase year-over-year (YOY) as of January 2024, according to an examination of more than 20,000 properties analyzed by Yardi Matrix.
Student Housing | Mar 27, 2024
March student housing preleasing in line with last year
Preleasing is still increasing at a historically fast pace, surpassing 61% in February 2024 and marking a 4.5% increase year-over-year.
K-12 Schools | Mar 18, 2024
New study shows connections between K-12 school modernizations, improved test scores, graduation rates
Conducted by Drexel University in conjunction with Perkins Eastman, the research study reveals K-12 school modernizations significantly impact key educational indicators, including test scores, graduation rates, and enrollment over time.
MFPRO+ News | Mar 16, 2024
Multifamily rents stable heading into spring 2024
National asking multifamily rents posted their first increase in over seven months in February. The average U.S. asking rent rose $1 to $1,713 in February 2024, up 0.6% year-over-year.
MFPRO+ News | Mar 12, 2024
Multifamily housing starts and permitting activity drop 10% year-over-year
The past year saw over 1.4 million new homes added to the national housing inventory. Despite the 4% growth in units, both the number of new homes under construction and the number of permits dropped year-over-year.
