Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 18, 2024
A modular construction solution to the mental healthcare crisis
Maria Ionescu, Senior Medical Planner, Stantec, shares a tested solution for the overburdened emergency department: Modular hub-and-spoke design.
Codes and Standards | Mar 18, 2024
New urban stormwater policies treat rainwater as a resource
U.S. cities are revamping how they handle stormwater to reduce flooding and capture rainfall and recharge aquifers. New policies reflect a change in mindset from treating stormwater as a nuisance to be quickly diverted away to capturing it as a resource.
Plumbing | Mar 18, 2024
EPA to revise criteria for WaterSense faucets and faucet accessories
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to revise its criteria for faucets and faucet accessories to earn the WaterSense label. The specification launched in 2007; since then, most faucets now sold in the U.S. meet or exceed the current WaterSense maximum flow rate of 1.5 gallons per minute (gpm).
MFPRO+ New Projects | Mar 18, 2024
Luxury apartments in New York restore and renovate a century-old residential building
COOKFOX Architects has completed a luxury apartment building at 378 West End Avenue in New York City. The project restored and renovated the original residence built in 1915, while extending a new structure east on West 78th Street.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 18, 2024
YWCA building in Boston’s Back Bay converted into 210 affordable rental apartments
Renovation of YWCA at 140 Clarendon Street will serve 111 previously unhoused families and individuals.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 17, 2024
5 criteria to optimize medical office design
Healthcare designers need to consider privacy, separate areas for practitioners, natural light, outdoor spaces, and thoughtful selection of materials for medical office buildings.
Construction Costs | Mar 15, 2024
Retail center construction costs for 2024
Data from Gordian shows the most recent costs per square foot for restaurants, social clubs, one-story department stores, retail stores and movie theaters in select cities.
Architects | Mar 15, 2024
4 ways to streamline your architectural practice
Vessel Architecture's Lindsay Straatmann, AIA, highlights four habits that have helped her discover the key to mastering efficiency as an architect.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 15, 2024
First comprehensive cancer hospital in Dubai to host specialized multidisciplinary care
Stantec was selected to lead the design team for the Hamdan Bin Rashid Cancer Hospital, Dubai’s first integrated, comprehensive cancer hospital. Named in honor of the late Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the hospital is scheduled to open to patients in 2026.
Codes and Standards | Mar 15, 2024
Technical brief addresses the impact of construction-generated moisture on commercial roofing systems
A new technical brief from SPRI, the trade association representing the manufacturers of single-ply roofing systems and related component materials, addresses construction-generated moisture and its impact on commercial roofing systems.