Grubb & Ellis predicts commercial real estate recovery

January 04, 2011

Grubb & Ellis Company, a leading real estate services and investment firm, released its 2011 Real Estate Forecast, which foresees the start of a slow recovery in the leasing market for all property types in the coming year. Highlights:

Office Market Lags as Jobs Remain Elusive. The office market will experience a half-speed recovery in 2011. After peaking at 17.9 percent in the second quarter – just 10 basis points shy of its all-time high in the past 24 years – the vacancy rate ended 2010 at 17.8 percent. Grubb & Ellis researchers expect the vacancy rate in 2011 and 2012 to drop to 17 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively.

Increased Trade to Spur Industrial Sector Recovery. With the weak dollar expected to boost exports and stronger consumer spending spurring imports, landlords are expected to see increased activity and demand for space. Manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers will continue to optimize their supply chains, and as a result, state-of-the-art distribution facilities in key logistics markets will win out among all industrial property subtypes.

Multi Housing Sector to Recover First in 2011. Foreclosures continue to add shadow supply to the availability of rentals, but modest job growth and lack of home buyers is causing the number of renter households to outpace that shadow supply. As a result, multi housing is the sector expected to recover first.

Retailers Repositioning for "New Normal." Like 2010, 2011 will see retailers repositioning stores to create leaner, more effective organizations and securing high-profile locations that are now available at lower rates.

Download the PDF to read the full report.

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