Confidence among U.S. construction industry leaders plummeted in February due to expectations of the economic fallout associated with COVID-19, according to the Associated Builders and Contractors Construction Confidence Index released today. Readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels expectations fell below the threshold of 50 for the first time in the history of the series, signaling expected contraction along all three dimensions.
As of February 2020, fewer than 30% of contractors expected their sales to increase over the next six months, while less than 20% of contractors expected their profit margins to increase. More than one in five contractors expect a significant decrease in profit margins, while one in four expect a significant decline in sales volumes.
- The CCI for sales expectations decreased from 68.3 to 38.1 in February.
- The CCI for profit margin expectations decreased from 61.9 to 36.6.
- The CCI for staffing levels decreased from 69 to 45.2.
“In the course of a month, construction industry confidence has shifted from ecstatic to utterly dismayed,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “If anything, confidence is likely to decline further as construction industry leaders come to terms with the full extent of the COVID-19 crisis. The finances of key sources of demand for construction services, including commercial real estate investment trusts, state and local governments, retailers and hoteliers, have been savaged by the crisis, translating into fewer funds available to finance construction.
“Normally, construction activity is partially shielded from the initial stages of downturn due to the presence of backlog, which stood at 8.2 months as of February 2020,” said Basu. “But this time is at least somewhat different, with certain construction activities halted in California, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and elsewhere. While construction will hold up better in the near-term than retail, restaurants, airlines, auto manufacturing, lodging and a number of other key industries, its recovery is also likely to be less profound than in these other segments absent a federal infrastructure-oriented stimulus package.”
CCI is a diffusion index. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
Related Stories
Construction Costs | Apr 18, 2024
New download: BD+C's April 2024 Market Intelligence Report
Building Design+Construction's monthly Market Intelligence Report offers a snapshot of the health of the U.S. building construction industry, including the commercial, multifamily, institutional, and industrial building sectors. This report tracks the latest metrics related to construction spending, demand for design services, contractor backlogs, and material price trends.
Market Data | Apr 16, 2024
The average U.S. contractor has 8.2 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of March 2024
Associated Builders and Contractors reported today that its Construction Backlog Indicator increased to 8.2 months in March from 8.1 months in February, according to an ABC member survey conducted March 20 to April 3. The reading is down 0.5 months from March 2023.
K-12 Schools | Apr 10, 2024
Surprise, surprise: Students excel in modernized K-12 school buildings
Too many of the nation’s school districts are having to make it work with less-than-ideal educational facilities. But at what cost to student performance and staff satisfaction?
Multifamily Housing | Apr 9, 2024
March reports record gains in multifamily rent growth in 20 months
Asking rents for multifamily units increased $8 during the month to $1,721; year-over-year growth grew 30 basis points to 0.9 percent—a normal seasonal growth pattern according to Yardi Matrix.
Retail Centers | Apr 4, 2024
Retail design trends: Consumers are looking for wellness in where they shop
Consumers are making lifestyle choices with wellness in mind, which ignites in them a feeling of purpose and a sense of motivation. That’s the conclusion that the architecture and design firm MG2 draws from a survey of 1,182 U.S. adult consumers the firm conducted last December about retail design and what consumers want in healthier shopping experiences.
Market Data | Apr 1, 2024
Nonresidential construction spending dips 1.0% in February, reaches $1.179 trillion
National nonresidential construction spending declined 1.0% in February, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.179 trillion.
Market Data | Mar 26, 2024
Architecture firm billings see modest easing in February
Architecture firm billings continued to decline in February, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 49.5 for the month. However, February’s score marks the most modest easing in billings since July 2023 and suggests that the recent slowdown may be receding.
K-12 Schools | Mar 18, 2024
New study shows connections between K-12 school modernizations, improved test scores, graduation rates
Conducted by Drexel University in conjunction with Perkins Eastman, the research study reveals K-12 school modernizations significantly impact key educational indicators, including test scores, graduation rates, and enrollment over time.
MFPRO+ News | Mar 16, 2024
Multifamily rents stable heading into spring 2024
National asking multifamily rents posted their first increase in over seven months in February. The average U.S. asking rent rose $1 to $1,713 in February 2024, up 0.6% year-over-year.
Market Data | Mar 14, 2024
Download BD+C's March 2024 Market Intelligence Report
U.S. construction spending on buildings-related work rose 1.4% in January, but project teams continue to face headwinds related to inflation, interest rates, and supply chain issues, according to Building Design+Construction's March 2024 Market Intelligence Report (free PDF download).
